Space

A Future Prognosis

Athena @ Shaping Tomorrow

28 May 2022
Introduction
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Contents
User Guide
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Sources
RSS Feeds
Twitter Searches
Web Searches
Twitter Feeds
World Outlook
Main factors that cause something to happen globally
An integral part of NASA's plan to return astronauts to the moon this decade is the Lunar Gateway, a space station that will be humanity's first permanent outpost outside of low Earth orbit. IEEE Spectrum
The total cost of Nasa's lunar programme, Artemis, will have ballooned to $93 billion by 2025 - before it even gets its new rocket off the planet for a test flight. The Times
The Luna-25 lander, possibly launching in mid-2022, will mark Russia's first moon landing since 1976, when the Soviet-era Luna-24 lander collected lunar samples to return to Earth. The New York Times
Global regions, coloured according to number of forecasts
SWOT
Strengths
  • Artemis 1 will see the deployment of 13 low-cost cubesats and include a trio of manikins designed to measure vibrations and space radiation, along with a vest for protecting astronauts against ionizing radiation. Gizmodo
  • Defense By Bryan Bender Proponents for a more muscular U.S. military say they fear China cannot be trusted to pursue only peaceful aims and could use its space program for both economic and military advantage, including a new partnership with Russia to build a moon base. Inferse.com
  • The new concept of the Titan mission will take advantage of the bountiful carbon presence on the moon to safely land, ignite rockets and go back to Earth without wasting any self-carried power source. Science Times
Weaknesses
  • The NOM4D program - short for Novel Orbital Moon Manufacturing, Materials, and Mass Efficient Design - will test materials science, manufacturing and design technologies that could be used off Earth someday. Space
  • Musk's long-term aim is to use Starship for landing people on Mars, but in the short term they do have a viable program contract: NASA plans to use Starship as the human landing system to put astronauts on the moon as part of the Artemis program. Forbes
  • The units we are testing are precursors to ones that will provide surface communications between the IM-2 / Nova-C unmanned lunar lander (part of the NASA CLPS program) and deployed vehicles on the lunar surface at short range. Light Reading
Opportunities
  • The Lunar Surface Electromagnetics Experiment will make a far side landing in 2025. Forbes
  • FARSIDE is not expected to see first light on the lunar surface until 2030 at earliest. Forbes
  • The United States and Japan announced that they are committed to a Japanese astronaut opportunity on the Gateway, a human outpost in the lunar vicinity, as part of expanding Artemis collaboration. Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Japan
Threats
  • Tool move - in is expected to start by end-2022, based on company plans, ahead of risk production in late 2024 E with Intel (client PC Lunar Lake's graphic tiles, while the CPU tiles are fabbed using Intel's 18 A) and Apple being the anchor customers for dedicated capacity support. / China Gizmodo
  • Further hazards will be encountered on the moon and Mars, where the lack of natural erosion from wind or water means rock particles are more like broken bits of glass than pebbles or sand granules here on Earth. The Official Microsoft Blog
  • Figuring out how to contain soft stools so they do not put other astronauts at risk - as well as how to deal with the dehydration and electrolyte imbalance that often come with extended periods of diarrhea - is considered a high priority before future lunar and near-Earth asteroid missions. Popular Science
Influencers
Countries
Cities
People
Organizations
S-Curve

A framework that describes a 4-phase level of maturity to help determine potential and inform innovation strategy.

Weak
Mars, moon, astronaut, lunar, flight, lander
Emerging
3D, 4G, EV, crypto, moon, app
Maturing
moon, lunar, Mars, astronaut, commercial, company
Declining
company, moon, Mars, budget, coal, economy
Sentiment
Past Year: Stable
Compare changing sentiment to a benchmark of all forecasts
Home to the world's third largest area of forest after Brazil and Democratic Republic of Congo, Indonesia pledged to halt or reverse deforestation by 2040 at the two-week climate summit in Glasgow. UN News
As of the end of 2021, roughly one quarter of the world's road transportation is committed to becoming emissions-free by or before 2050. Drive Electric Campaign
PEST
Political
  • Some communities in the Second World War would string camouflage across bodies of water in the hopes of concealing them from pilots on the night of a bomber's moon. Historical Index
  • If China does contest the United States in cislunar space and the U.S. expands its lunar presence, there will have to be some sort of verification system to ensure compliance with the Outer Space Treaty. SpaceNews
  • Proponents for a more muscular U.S. military say they fear China cannot be trusted to pursue only peaceful aims and could use its space program for both economic and military advantage, including a new partnership with Russia to build a moon base. Politico
Economic
  • Canoo will launch commercial production of its vehicles from its Arkansas factory in late 2022, and deliver on the NASA Artemis vehicle in 2023. Inhabitat
  • Once space tourism becomes mainstream, it will have a positive impact on many socio-economic processes on Earth: job creation, development of new energy infrastructure based on solar energy, etc. Emma Thorpe
  • The European Space Agency is currently working on the ISRU Demonstration Mission, whose goal is to show, by 2025, that water or oxygen production on the Moon is feasible. Universe Today
Social
  • NASA's Artemis mission will eventually lead to the establishment of a basecamp on the surface of the moon which will include infrastructure such as launch pads and roads in addition to habitats and later production facilities such as greenhouses, refineries and power plants. Additive Manufacturing
  • Singapore hopes that, by joining the Artemis Accords, it can cooperate more closely with the United States and other nations, including development of norms of behavior for space activities. the weekly ledger
  • On a multilateral level, the Artemis Accords pioneered by the United States should also merit serious consideration by India, as future cooperation with Russia could be fraught with risks and uncertainties. Carnegie India
Technological
  • There could be 600 million tonnes of water ice on the Moon. Future technology
  • NASA is intending to land its Volatiles Investigating Polar Exploration Rover, or VIPER, on the lunar south pole in late 2023 to get a close-up view of the location and concentration of water ice that could eventually be harvested to sustain human exploration on the Moon, Mars - and beyond. Future technology
  • China's Chang' e 8 could explore how to turn lunar resources at the Moon's south pole into usable materials through 3D printing. Future technology
Financial Impact
Between lunar missions and commercial space stations, low-Earth economy and vital information-gathering about our planet, investments in the space industry could reach $1 trillion in the 2030s. World Economic Forum
By 2045, China seeks to become the dominant space power, and by mid-century, it aims to develop an Earth-Moon space economic zone potentially capable of generating $10 trillion in value per year. The National Interest
If the space economy could reach a trillion dollars by 2030 then, after demonstration of the economic feasibility of lunar industrial development, a $10 trillion space economy by 2040 would be within reach. The Space Review
Click on the dots or the lines to see the connections
System Map
Organizations
Sectors
Cities
Countries
People
Scenarios
Creates plausible alternative futures of what can happen and encourages development of a robust, agile response
An integral part of NASA's plan to return astronauts to the moon this decade is the Lunar Gateway, a space station that will be humanity's first permanent outpost outside of low Earth orbit. IEEE Spectrum
ESA's large-class science missions for the timeframe 2035-2050 will focus on moons of the giant Solar System planets, temperate exoplanets or the galactic ecosystem, and new physical probes of the early universe. phys.org
Given the state of the world right now, it's no great surprise that President Trump's goal to send humans back to the moon by 2024 is in jeopardy. Discover Magazine
Warnings
Changing proportion of published forecasts
AN OUT-of-control rocket on course to crash into the Moon threatens to contaminate its surface with microbes from Earth, a scientist has warned. The Sun
Having fewer red blood cells in space is not a problem when your body is weightless, but when landing on earth and potentially on other planets or moons, anemia affecting your energy, endurance, and strength can threaten mission objectives. Media
Solutions
Know how others are tackling issues with this topic
Figuring out how to contain soft stools so they do not put other astronauts at risk - as well as how to deal with the dehydration and electrolyte imbalance that often come with extended periods of diarrhea - is considered a high priority before future lunar and near-Earth asteroid missions. Popular Science
While the process of electrolysis on Earth is well-understood, much less is known about how it might function in the lower-gravity environments of Mars, where the pull of gravity is one-third that of Earth, and the Moon, where it is just one-sixth. Metro.co.uk
The Emirates Lunar Mission is the first of a series of missions intended for developing new technologies that will eventually support missions to the martian surface, and address food, energy and water-security challenges back on earth. Khaleej Times
Key topics
Extremes
Investigate what’s transforming or collapsing
Tackling the challenge of building on the Moon will require the know-how of what's already been done in Earth's harshest environments - extreme cold, extreme dust, higher radioactivity - combined with new thinking and approaches. SpaceRef
Habitable planets and moons might be extremely rare - especially planets like Earth that have remained habitable for billions of years - but it's looking more and more like any planet or moon that can support life likely has the necessary chemicals on hand. Universe Today
For prospecting, exploring, and ultimately using the far side of the Moon, Lunar Pathfinder's communications relay service will provide a vital communications bridge between Earth and the lunar surface. E&T
What's Next
Changing proportion of material mentioning future years
Besides Moon, China hopes to launch probe to near-Earth asteroids in the next five years as well as study ways to send spacecraft to the Jupiter system and Mars again, with plans to bring back samples from the red planet. Sambad English
Other missions to the Moon under NASA's CLPS program include the Peregrine Mission One by Astrobotic, which is slated for sometime in the first quarter of 2022, as well as a mission performed by Masten Space's XL-1 lander in late 2023. SpaceFlight Insider
Questions
Can?
Can Physics-Informed Neural Nets replace traditional methods in lunar mapping to support rover traverses and human operations at the lunar poles? SETI Institute
Can SpaceX be held liable for its space junk hitting the Moon? Forbes
The United States has always been equivocal about Moon's KPI, perceiving it as a kind of meddling between North Korea and the U.S., so what kind of reward can Biden offer Moon? The Diplomat
How?
How soon before the earth is ringed with orbital factories and humanity has planted itself permanently on the moon, Mars, and beyond? The Boston Globe
How important is space tourism? Around World journal
How will space itself be managed once many countries demonstrate their capability to build space stations and land on various other planets, moons, and asteroids in the solar system? Issues in Science and Technology
Who?
Who will own the Moon's resources? Digital Journal
What?
What are the ethics of mining the Moon? Eos
What are the main challenges facing any mining operation on the moon, or in space? Mining Global
What will the future exploration of the Galilean moons look like if the MMAT is effective? Universe Today
When?
When will see Europeans on the Moon? SpaceWatch.Global
When can we expect space tourism to become commonplace? Phys Org
Why throw the ISS away, when it could be offered to the international private sector for use as a lunar-staging infrastructure? Tech Crunch
Will?
With enough money and enough will, could China beat the U.S. back to the moon? Time
Will increasing traffic to the Moon contaminate its precious ice? Europa
Will space tourism harm the environment? The Conversation
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