Climate

A Future Prognosis

Matt Richardson

28 May 2022
Introduction
This set of automatically curated slides provides an instant overview about possible futures to help inform present day strategy, and for you to act on opportunities and risks and mitigate threats in a timely manner. Learn more.

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Contents
User Guide
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Sources
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World Outlook
Main factors that cause something to happen globally
Reining in all climate pollutants together could see the world begin to avoid some warming as early as 2030 and halve the rate of warming between 2030 and 2050. Reuters
HSBC regards climate change as one of the most serious emergencies facing the planet, and is committed to supporting its customers in their transition to net zero and a sustainable future and, like HSBC Asset Management, is committed to achieving net zero by 2050. //www.investmentweek.co.uk/
Now achieving net-zero buildings by 2050 to combat climate change has become a global mandate. IoT Now News - How to run an IoT enabled business
Global regions, coloured according to number of forecasts
SWOT
Strengths
  • With natural gas, petroleum and critical minerals in abundance, Canada will wed its commitment to climate change with technological development at home to provide reliable, environmentally friendly energy and critical mineral resources to the Indo-Pacific. The Strategist
  • Stronger hurricanes are expected to become more common as climate change heats up the world's oceans. The Verge
  • In further support of sustainable natural resource management and to help conserve biodiversity, NRCan will work with Environment and Climate Change Canada and Indigenous communities on protecting and recovering species at risk and their habitat, like woodland caribou. Natural Resources Canada
Weaknesses
  • Six out of every ten of South Africa's CEOs polled are moderately, very or extremely concerned about physical and transition risks associated with climate change. Mining Weekly
  • Climate scientists will now be able to estimate more accurately the extent of the damage that climate change is expected to wreak-damage that will only be mitigated if humanity intervenes and takes responsibility for the future of the planet. phys.org
  • Nation-states have much to do besides fighting, such as addressing the unstoppable effects of climate change and competing for refugees and other immigrants as population growth stalls and seems likely to turn negative by 2060 globally, as it already has in more-developed countries. FLI Worldbuilding Contest
Opportunities
  • Climate change poses an opportunity for insurers, as it claims climate risks are set to account for around 30-40 per cent of the $2.5trn increase in global insurance premiums over the next two decades. CityAM
  • An early phase-out of coal, in line with phase-out dates that are based on regional pathways considered by the IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5 °C, could contribute to avoiding 14.4 million premature deaths, or saving 423 million years of life from plants in Asia alone, by mid-century. NewClimate Institute
  • Feedback processes are expected to become more positive overall (more amplifying of global surface temperature changes) on multi-decadal timescales as the spatial pattern of surface warming evolves and global surface temperature increases. Carbon Brief
Threats
  • Forbes compared more than 800 locales in America on everything from housing costs and taxes to healthcare, air quality, crime and climate change and natural hazard risk. Forbes
  • The expected increase in heat and reduced rainfall in The Gambia is one of the most significant health threats caused by climate change. LSTM
  • Climate change puts $2.2 trillion in economic output at risk. Community
Influencers
Countries
Cities
People
Organizations
S-Curve

A framework that describes a 4-phase level of maturity to help determine potential and inform innovation strategy.

Weak
computer, atmosphere, augmented reality, autonomous, disaster, science
Emerging
EV, artificial intelligence, carbon, pandemic, country, battery
Maturing
emission, country, carbon, global warming, climate-change, community
Declining
emission, GDP, coal, country, biodiversity, carbon
Sentiment
Past Year: More Negative
Compare changing sentiment to a benchmark of all forecasts
Reining in all climate pollutants together could see the world begin to avoid some warming as early as 2030 and halve the rate of warming between 2030 and 2050. Reuters
The challenge of capturing carbon is gigantic: the latest models from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change suggest that as the global economy decarbonizes, the world will also need to remove around six billion tons of CO2 per year by 2050 to avoid the worst impacts of climate change. Fast Company
PEST
Political
  • NRCan will work with other government departments, national partners and stakeholders to develop a national climate change adaptation strategy, and will use Canada's Climate Change Adaptation Platform as a means of engagement. Natural Resources Canada
  • In 2019, New Zealand passed multipartisan climate legislation setting a net zero by 2050 target for CO2 emissions, and set up the Climate Change Commission to map out a pathway there. The Guardian
  • The Australian Shareholders' Association (ASA) has issued its first ESG and climate change policy, calling on ASX200 companies to commit to net zero by 2050. FS Sustainability
Economic
  • Labor's more ambitious mid-term target for emissions reductions (43% on 2005 levels by 2030) will ease the quiet frustration of the Biden team over Australia's climate change foot-dragging. The Diplomat
  • Climate change puts $2.2 trillion in economic output at risk. Community
  • The new Australian government is presented with an enormous opportunity to unlock billions of dollars of investment in new jobs and industries that will address climate change. Investor Group on Climate Change
Social
  • As Big Pharma slowly but surely warms up to the potential of digital therapeutics, Pfizer took another step in its partnership with Icelandic biotech Sidekick Health to launch a product specifically geared for atopic dermatitis. Endpoints News
  • Despite the uncertainties in 2022, Allianz analysts remain optimistic as they expect climate change and demographic change to be the main drivers of risk protection demand. Insurance Business
  • In the 21st Century, it will cause a great deal of climate change refugees. Chris Drew, PhD
Technological
  • Looking ahead, the TTC's next phase will be to move from the acute challenges posed by Russia to the chronic challenges of climate change and digital authoritarianism, primarily China. Atlantic Council
  • The U.S. aims to cut its greenhouse gas emissions in half by 2030 as part of its commitment to tackling climate change, but might be lacking the critical minerals needed to achieve its goals. Visual Capitalist
  • We see how public opinion reflects the urgency and willingness to change lifestyles, how youth worldwide demand and exercise more agency to fight climate change, environmental degradation and inequity and that technological development and uptake is occurring faster than anticipated. The Guardian
Financial Impact
Unchecked climate change would be a major impediment to economic growth during the next 50 years, costing an estimated $178 trillion in net present value terms during the 2021-2070 period, a new study concludes. Axios
If countries act quickly to reach net zero emissions by 2050 and hold global warming to below 2 C, the global economy would see an expansion of $43 trillion in net present value during the 2021-70 period. the weekly ledger
Investments of an additional $3.5 trillion annually will be required to reach net zero carbon emissions by 2050 by limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees C elsius to reduce the chances of catastrophic climate events. Brookings
Click on the dots or the lines to see the connections
System Map
Organizations
Sectors
Cities
Countries
People
Scenarios
Creates plausible alternative futures of what can happen and encourages development of a robust, agile response
Methane emissions must be reduced by 45% by 2030 for the world to have a fighting chance at staving off catastrophic climate change. Waste Dive
If the world is to curb emissions to net-zero by 2050, and avoid the most dire consequences of climate change, no new oil and gas fields can be developed from now on. Eco-business
By 2050, global coal, oil and gas use will need to decline by 95, 60 and 45% respectively, compared with 2019 levels, for the world to have a halfway decent shot at capping global warming at 1.5 degrees Celsius, the U.N. panel noted. The New York Times
Warnings
Changing proportion of published forecasts
The latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report - which warns that global emissions must decline by 2025 to avoid dangerous climate change - showed why must fossil fuel drilling must stop. The Independent
Large companies that do business in the United States would be required within three years to lay bare their contributions and vulnerabilities to climate change - including, in some cases, the planet-warming emissions associated with their customers and suppliers. E&E News
Solutions
Know how others are tackling issues with this topic
If Canada and the rest of the world have any hope of achieving the emissions reduction targets set out in the Paris Agreement and staving off catastrophic climate change, we need to be generating two-thirds of global energy from renewables like wind, solar and geothermal by 2035. The Globe and Mail
Australia is on the pathway to net zero emissions by 2050 and playing its part in responding to the critical global challenge of climate change. Brisbane Times
Even with the commitments made at COP26 to phase down coal, cut methane emissions and halt deforestation, some reports suggest the world is still on track for 2.4 C of warming by 2030. Climate Capital Live
Key topics
Extremes
Investigate what’s transforming or collapsing
Up to US$183bn of premiums could be generated globally by 2040 as a consequence of climate change, mostly in the property insurance segment, given the threat of exposure to catastrophes such as floods, earthquakes, and extreme weather events like storms and wildfires. PwC
Africa contributes 2 to 3% of global emissions, but climate change threatens to expose up to 118 million of the poorest Africans to droughts, floods and extreme heat by 2030. United Nations
Energy intensive air conditioning, likely to be the world's primary heat reduction strategy, exacerbates global warming and drives further extreme heat events, 5 while remaining unaffordable for the estimated two to five billion people who will be exposed to heat stress by 2050. The BMJ
What's Next
Changing proportion of material mentioning future years
Climate change will be the greatest threat to humanity and global ecosystems in the coming years. Vanguard News
Fashion may not have decades to come around: The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, an intergovernmental body of the United Nations, has stated that to avoid climate catastrophe, global emissions must be halved by 2030. Fashionista
Questions
Can?
What can be done to stop or slow climate change? Peak Oil
Can technology arrive fast enough to stay ahead of the spreading dangers to energy infrastructure that climate change is creating? E&E News
What can we do to slow or stop global warming? Interesting Engineering
How?
Though how could anything be more ironic than the fact that is is the Olde Confederate South that is the US region most threatened by climate change? Contrary Brin
How will climate change uniquely impact my organization? BRINK - Conversations and Insights on Global Business
How do we feed a dramatically increasing global population in the face of climate change when the FEW resources are under considerable strain? Research Features
Who?
COP26 negotiations reach an impasse: who will pay for the consequences of climate change? Perild
Who will be harmed by climate change? The Conversation
Who are the economic winners and losers from climate change? events.nsmg.live
What?
What does a great power fix have to offer on issues like climate change, or global poverty or technological transformation? Lowy Institute
What if We Blotted Out the Sun to Fight Global Warming? Peak Oil
What are the causes of global warming? Interesting Engineering
When?
Is there a need for a comprehensive framework for considering climate change, or can it be treated on a case-by-case basis when deciding on specific measures? chinadialogue ocean
At a time when the world is meant to be tackling climate change why are airlines spending a fortune shuttling thousands of empty planes, each spewing tons of carbon emissions into the atmosphere, between airports? The Spectator
How can we reverse climate change when so much of the world is driven by private sector interests that favor conspicuous consumption, including the use of carbon energy? Henry Mintzberg
Will?
In the future, will climate change cut children and families off from their connections to home and heritage or might it prompt deeper relationships with culture and tradition? capita
Are anti-nuclear movements going to be reinvigorated as part of the fight against climate change or will they become relics of the past? New Security Beat
Will hydrogen have a key impact in fighting climate change or is it a hype? H2 View
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