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Tourism Foresight

Trend Alert Admin November 2018 Credibility


The tourism industry faces greater competition than ever before, including from more affordable destinations in Latin America and Asia, increasingly popular North American cities such as Toronto and Miami and cities that have invested much more in developing a welcoming visitor experience. Plus climate change, pollution and ever-increasing tourism threaten previously popular destinations.
What is changing?

SUMMARY

Systems Map: One of the fastest growing categories in travel and tourism, current forecasts predict that passenger numbers will grow by around 7% between now and 2020, while in the same time frame 37 more cruise ships will come online adding nearly 100,000 to world-wide passenger capacity.

The systems map shows where this increase in passenger numbers is likely to impact the most and on what. Notice new destinations as a key component of tourism futures bringing more jobs and earnings to the sector. But, the sector will also have to cope with the unknown effect of the imminent arrival of VR/AR, increasing pollution (fish) and greater climate change.

Radar Chart: One surprise for us is the huge impact smart cities will have on tourism in just a few years. Those cities offering clean, safe, effortless, amazing experiences are likely to be the winners. An early adventurer in this space has been Singapore. We can expect SG and other forward-thinking cities to be developing smart tourism experiences to enhance their GDP for decades to come.

Graph-It: Smart cities appear at the top of the Graph-It chart too with the clear correlation to increasing infrastructure capital investment and their expected major impact on country. GDP’s.

Pundits see increases in the number of smart hotels and cruise ships and the further melding of continuous education into all forms of tourism.
Sentiment: Global sentiment towards more education is nett positive with much investment in new technologies partially offset by an increasing divide between rich and poor and lack of opportunity for the latter’s families plus concerns about growing student debts in developing countries.

Cloud: The Cloud chart shows just how many sectors are involved in or impacted by tourism and how the global economy is the main beneficiary of all individual activities. Further increases in nationalism could seriously weaken trade and growth to the disbenefit of tourism.

Pie Charts: In the tourism sector there is much higher likelihood of many of the current initiatives to come to fruition than other industries (future recessions/wars excepted). Many initiatives are already evolving (14.8%) and gaining traction (20.9%) but still we have yet to seee the impact of the many early stage ideas (57.2%) such as hyperloops, space travel, new cruise ships, driverless shuttles, new fairground rides and smart city developments that will bring many billions of dollars to the sector.

Geographies: After this year’s World Cup in Russia, the country is now seen as a destination by many new tourists. But, the US is dropping back in its popularity because of Donald Trump’s policies while China continues to appeal. China's tourism industry will take up to 8.6% of world market share to become the world's top tourism industry by 2020.

ANALYSIS

System map

One of the fastest growing categories in travel and tourism, current forecasts predict that passenger numbers will grow by around 7% between now and 2020, while in the same time frame 37 more cruise ships will come online adding nearly 100,000 to world-wide passenger capacity.

The systems map shows where this increase in passenger numbers is likely to impact the most and on what. Notice new destinations as a key component of tourism futures bringing more jobs and earnings to the sector. But, the sector will also have to cope with the unknown effect of the imminent arrival of VR/AR, increasing pollution (fish) and greater climate change.

Radar Chart

One surprise is the huge impact smart cities will have on tourism in just a few years. Those cities offering clean, safe, effortless, amazing experiences are likely to be the winners. An early adventurer in this pace is Singapore. We can expect SG and other forward-thinking cities to be developing smart tourism experiences to enhance their GDP for decades to come.

Graph-It

Smart cities appear at the top of the Graph-It chart too with the clear correlation to increasing infrastructure capital investment and their expected major impact on country GDP’s. Pundits see increases in the number of smart hotels and cruise ships and the further melding of continuous education into all forms of tourism.

Sentiment

Global sentiment towards more tourism is nett positive.  But while the opening up of the world to more tourists is seen by most as positive the impacts of climate change, rising pollution and geopolitical issues raises doubts in many minds. Continued over-use and destruction of pristine sites will eventually mean increased regulation, restrictions, charges and penalties in many countries they say.

The winners will likely drive up tourism in their marketplaces but do their utmost to preserve and clean-up habitats, substantially reduce the use scarce resources and develop transport systems as a service from home to destination and back again seamlessly.

Cloud

The Cloud chart shows just how many sectors are involved in or impacted by tourism and how the global economy is the main beneficiary of all individual activities. Further increases in nationalism could seriously weaken trade and growth to the disbenefit of tourism.

Pie Charts

In the tourism sector there is much higher likelihood of many of the current initiatives to come to fruition than other industries (future recessions/wars excepted). Many initiatives are already evolving (14.8%) and gaining traction (20.9%) but still we have yet to seee the impact of the many early stage ideas (57.2%) such as hyperloops, space travel, new cruise ships, driverless shuttles, new fairground rides and smart city developments that will bring many billions of dollars to the sector.

Geographies

After this year’s World Cup in Russia, the country is now seen as a destination by many new tourists. But, the US is dropping back in its popularity because of Donald Trump’s policies while China continues to appeal. China's tourism industry will take up to 8.6% of world market share to become the world's top tourism industry by 2020.

Evidence

Extracted forecasts found by Athena and linked back to the original articles, reports and PowerPoints (Insights) that she found can be found below using this search term: TOURISM

Implications

industry

tourism

demand

market

travel

gdp

sector

visitor

arrival

job

southern eastern Mediterranean

Question

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Sources

Athena used the sources below as the top ones to create this report and determined which embedded forecasts are included in this Trend Alert. She found 1,231 forecasts in seconds on 1st November 2018 to allow us to publish this report in less than ninety minutes. She can turn these into PowerPoint slides and Audio files in minutes too as you wish, or we can prepare a full customized and professionally written brief for you to order covering all these forecasts.

Athena

Athena does show duplicates to aid your understanding of themes as well as contradictory forecasts. She may also show near-duplicates. You can speed read past the duplicates and near-duplicates if you wish, though the latter may show additional information. You can use the contradictory, and likely uncertain forecasts she finds to imagine different scenarios. The future is unpredictable, but we can examine the possibilities and choose our preferable future from the choices she presents. 

Athena is apolitical. She will report forecasts from different viewpoints however distasteful that might be to our own values. Wearing rose-colored glasses is not her purpose; reporting potential futures is. So, we recommend you check her veracity before responding to her extracted forecasts.

Just like humans, Athena can be fallible. Do recognize that you and your associates are biased too. But whereas you tire, make mistakes and only recognize what interests you, she does not. She might miss or misinterpret as you do, but with far less frequency and she'll take uncomfortable truths and alternative ideas in her stride. But, please let us know if you feel her bias can be reduced. We want to do our best for you. And, as with any research, you should check and triangulate her findings for yourself.

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