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Future of Seafood

4 October 2018 Credibility


The World Bank estimates that 62% of fish for human consumption will come from aquaculture by 2030, dominated by tilapia, carp and catfish: Global tilapia production alone is expected to almost double to 7.3 million tons a year by 2030. Read on to discover what our robot, Athena, thinks the future of seafood could be, take action accordingly, or click any link to read the evidence.
What is changing?

Summary

The reality of a world with finite resources and a global population that is projected to hit 9.8 billion people by 2050 is playing an equally significant role in seafood consumption growth.

The global blue economy, which covers all activities making use of the ocean's resources - from fisheries, to renewable energy to biotechnology, is set to grow at twice the rate of the mainstream economy by 2030.

The share of farmed species in global fishery production is projected to exceed that of wild species for the first time in 2020 and to grow to 54 percent in 2030. In Asia, a booming population will account for much of the global rise in beef, poultry and fish consumption over the next decade or so.

World food fish consumption in 2030 is projected to be 20 percent higher than in 2016 with most demand coming from Asia and North America.

Assessing climate change impacts for fisheries and aquaculture primary production of the global ocean is expected to decline by 6 percent by 2100 and by 11 percent in tropical zones.

11% of the world's population will be vulnerable to micronutrient deficiencies by 2050 if there is not a shift in fishery management practices.

In the coming years, the world's oceans will see a growing development of marine infrastructures including offshore wind farms, marine aquaculture farms and offshore ports.

By 2025, Athena finds that the demand for fish will require substantial investment in infrastructure and the use of robots (satellites, sensors, drones, mini-submarines and AI and ML) to track, manage fish and clean their waters. Global efforts are already well underway to create such networked animal management systems.

Growing global populations will raise demand for fish and other seafood.

Attitudes to seafood are positive over the coming years but this may change if supply does not keep up with demand.  

Unsustainable fishing practices threaten long-term global food security, especially in the developing world where 60 per cent of people obtain more than 30 per cent of their protein supply from fish.

Athena calculates that the tipping point for the transformation of seafood worldwide will be around 2035 from aggregating the views of all her sources. (The tipping point is when 33% of citizens believe that what changes have occurred have always been the status quo of modern living).

Similarly, those same sources collectively rank the issue as High. She ranks the future Impact in Billions with 35.7% of sources placing it in an already evolving and gaining traction state.

China's future policy and reach in food and agriculture will likely critically impact on world fish supply and demand.

China and Canada lead efforts in future seafood production and supply with the USA, Denmark, New Zealand and India in the van. Given the rapid improvement in supply chains we may well see global competition with players seeking growth far from their shores.

Analysis

Systems map

The reality of a world with finite resources and a global population that is projected to hit 9.8 billion people by 2050 is playing an equally significant role in seafood consumption growth.

The global blue economy, which covers all ctivities making use of the ocean's resources - from fisheries, to renewable energy to biotechnology, is set to grow at twice the rate of the mainstream economy by 2030.

The share of farmed species in global fishery production is projected to exceed that of wild species for the first time in 2020 and to grow to 54 percent in 2030. In Asia, a booming population will account for much of the global rise in beef, poultry and fish consumption over the next decade or so.

Radar

World food fish consumption in 2030 is projected to be 20 percent higher than in 2016 with most demand coming from Asia and North America.

Graph-It

Assessing climate change impacts for fisheries and aquaculture primary production of the global ocean is expected to decline by 6 percent by 2100 and by 11 percent in tropical zones.

11% of the world's population will be vulnerable to micronutrient deficiencies by 2050 if there is not a shift in fishery management practices.

In the coming years, the world's oceans will see a growing development of marine infrastructures including offshore wind farms, marine aquaculture farms and offshore ports.

By 2025, Athena finds that the demand for fish will require substantial investment in infrastructure and the use of robots (satellites, sensors, mini-submarines and AI) to track, manage fish and clean their waters. Global efforts are already well underway to create such systems.

Sentiment analysis

Growing global populations will raise demand for fish and other seafood.

Attitudes to seafood are positive over the coming years but this may change if supply does not keep up with demand.

Unsustainable fishing practices threaten long-term global food security, especially in the developing world where 60 per cent of people obtain more than 30 per cent of their protein supply from fish.

FAO's report warns that the world has diverged in its approach to sustainable fisheries, with worsening overcapacity and stock status - too many boats chasing too few fish - in developing countries offsetting improved fisheries management and stock statuses in developed ones.

Escapes from, or invasion into, aquatic ponds may mix the genomes of wild and cultivated fish, crustaceans, molluscs, aquatic plants, algae, and other organisms with unknown consequences for the industry.

Pie charts

Athena calculates that the tipping point for the transformation of seafood worldwide will be around 2035 from aggregating the views of all her sources. (The tipping point is when 33% of citizens believe that what changes have occurred have always been the status quo of modern living).

Similarly, those same sources collectively rank the issue as High. She ranks the future Impact in Billions with 35.7% placing it in an already evolving and gaining traction state.

Heat Map

China's future policy and reach in food and agriculture will likely critically impact on world fish supply and demand.

Geographies

China and Canada lead efforts in future seafood production and supply with the USA, Denmark, New Zealand and India in the van. Given the rapid improvement in supply chains we may well see global competition with players seeking growth far from their region.

Evidence

Extracted forecasts found by Athena and linked back to the original articles, reports and PowerPoints (Insights) that she found can be found below using this search term:

Aquaculture OR aquiculture OR aquafarming OR seafood OR hatchery OR 'blue economy' OR fish

Implications

catch

consumption

stock

farm

market

fish

fishery

ocean

population

production

security

Questions

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Source

Athena used the sources below as the top ones to create this report and determined which embedded forecasts are included in this Trend Alert. She found 1,255 forecasts in seconds on the 27th September 2018 to allow us to publish this report in less than ninety minutes. She can turn these into PowerPoint slides and Audio files in minutes too as you wish, or we can prepare a full customized and professionally written brief for you to order covering all these forecasts.

Forecast:
Insight: