Global Scans · France · Weekly Summary

WHAT'S NEXT?: Discontent with political elites and country performance is driving the discourse and demand for action from the French public. With Presidential elections due in May 2017 it remains to be seen whether another political earthquake may happen in one of the EU's founding countries.

• [New] ING's chief economist Carsten Brzeski adds that the bar for another cut is high, though risks such as a stronger euro, delayed fiscal stimulus in Germany, or renewed political turbulence in France could still justify one or two additional cuts in December or in 2026. Morningstar, Inc.
• [New] France is not threatened by bankruptcy but by gradual suffocation from its high levels of public debt. Central Banking
• [New] French budget negotiations - we expect France's bond risk premium to rise further. WTW
• [New] Trials will span FX, securities, and trade finance, with early experiments involving France's Banque de France and Hong Kong's Monetary Authority already proving atomic settlements - simultaneous fiat-digital swaps in seconds. Medium
• [New] Housing needs far exceed supply France requires 518,000 homes annually (198,000 social), Germany 400,000 (140,000 social), the Netherlands nearly 1 million by 2031, and Sweden over 500,000 by 2033 - yet production consistently falls short, often by half. Housing Europe
• [New] France has legislation in place to ensure the continuation of core state functions until a budget for 2026 is passed in the National Assembly. 2.024 Corporate EN
• [New] We forecast insolvencies in France to remain broadly unchanged in 2025, followed by a 12% decline in 2026. atradius
• We expect growth to slow to 0.6% in 2025 before gradually accelerating towards 1.0% in 2026 and approximately 1.5% in 2027-28. / France MIT OpenCourseWare
• France will provide Ukraine with additional Aster missiles and new Mirage aircraft in the coming days and that the UK will accelerate the delivery of over 5,000 multi-purpose missiles to Ukraine. Critical Threats
• A turn to digital sovereignty led by France and Germany will reorder the internal balance of power in Europe's digital politics to their advantage. Think Tank Europa
• The public deficit is expected to rise to a dangerous 5.4%, leading to the downgrading of France's credit rating. The Guardian
• France, Spain, the Netherlands and Romania plan to implement similar systems by 2030, and the IMO has announced a global fuel standard for international shipping starting in 2028. IEA
• France, with GDP projected at $3.56 trillion, and Italy, at $2.70 trillion, round out the top tier of European economies. CEOWORLD Magazine
• France requires 518,000 homes annually (198,000 social housing) until 2040 to meet demand. The National Association of Housing and Redevelopment O
• France could see an increase of 6,000 insolvencies due to export declines, while Spain and the Netherlands may face up to 2,900 and 700 additional cases, respectively. Insurance Business
• France and Germany are likely to strengthen domestic military power, while an increase in the number of bilateral defence agreements among Eastern European countries will form a new external balancing. Modern Diplomacy
• The forecasted precipitation anomalies for December-February feature a relatively moderate outlook for most of Central Europe with the highest probability of snowy / wet conditions in France and along the Mediterranean area. Archer Financial Services
• The forecasted temperature anomalies for December-February feature a near-normal outlook for most of Western Europe, with some potential for cold anomalies in Southwest (Southern France, northern Spain and Italy) and Central-East (Poland, Baltic states, Western Russia). Archer Financial Services
• With secular fiscal drift and muted growth, France will become the next barometer of investor confidence in Europe's ability to manage political risk. McAlvany Financial Group
• ECB officials still face many headwinds: France's political crisis has pushed up borrowing costs in the eurozone's second-biggest economy, and the risk of a flare-up in trade tensions lingers.
• In the highly likely event that Lecornu's consultations fail to produce a workable government, France's political crisis will likely have reached full meltdown. Foreign Exchanges
• In France, Prime Minister Lecornu's resignation means new elections are becoming increasingly likely but will not solve the fiscal problems. Dafferns Wealth
• If France does not have the financial means or stability to back any policy up with action, Macron's ability to lead Europe will diminish. International Relations Review

Last updated: 05 November 2025