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Global Scans · Shifting Institutions & Governance · Signal Scanner

The Emerging Role of Non-State Actors in Multipolar Global Governance

Global governance is entering a new phase shaped by a growing multipolar world order and intensified geopolitical tensions among major powers such as the United States, China, and Russia. Among the numerous shifts, a weak but increasingly significant signal is the rising influence of non-state actors—ranging from multinational corporations, city-states, non-governmental organizations (NGOs), to informal coalitions—which could fundamentally alter how global challenges are addressed. This evolving dynamic presents novel opportunities and risks for business, governments, and societies looking to navigate disruptions linked to health, security, environmental, and technological domains.

What’s Changing?

The geopolitical landscape is rapidly fragmenting into a multipolar global order. Key players, including China and Russia, are aggressively pursuing strategic frontiers in areas such as the Arctic and outer space to expand their influence, often at the expense of Western powers (MERICS, 2025). This rising tension complicates collaborative efforts in global governance, especially where traditional multilateral institutions struggle to adapt or enforce international law effectively (IP Quarterly, 2025). This uncertainty, combined with a decline in Western-led multilateralism, creates governance gaps ripe for alternative actors to emerge.

Within this shifting environment, non-state actors—entities operating independently of national governments—are gaining disproportionate leverage. These actors include:

  • Multinational corporations (MNCs) wielding economic and technological power beyond many states.
  • City-states and mega-cities positioning themselves as independent policy hubs that bypass national bureaucracies to attract investment and talent (Unlimited Hangout, 2025).
  • NGOs and advocacy networks mobilizing around issues such as health equity, climate change, and human rights with agility that traditional governments often lack (Nature, 2025).
  • Informal transnational coalitions which may bridge state divides or exploit governance vacuums.

This trend is propelled by multiple interconnected forces: the erosion of trust in traditional governments, rapid technological diffusion enabling decentralization, and the recognition that many global challenges cannot be effectively addressed within rigid state-centric frameworks. For example, the World Health Organization’s recent budget increase underscores the need for coordinated, multilateral health responses while acknowledging the rising role of non-state stakeholders in shaping these responses (Nature, 2025).

Such developments signal a future where global governance may no longer remain confined to conventional state actors and international organizations but expand to include a complex ecosystem of diverse stakeholders operating across political and geographic boundaries.

Why is this Important?

The increasing prominence of non-state actors represents a fundamental shift with broad implications:

  • Governance Effectiveness: Traditional multilateral institutions might face obsolescence or paralysis if they cannot meaningfully integrate or compete with dynamic non-state actors. This could either degrade collective responses to crises or, conversely, accelerate innovation in governance models.
  • Power Redistribution: The conventional state monopoly over global policy may diminish as economic and technological power becomes more diffused, potentially rebalancing influence among actors and regions. Businesses and city-states could become major policy shapers, influencing everything from climate initiatives to technological standards.
  • Regulatory Complexity: New governance wrinkles will arise from overlapping authorities and competing legal frameworks as non-state actors push boundaries outside existing state jurisdictions.
  • Global Risks and Opportunities: The emergence of agile actors may fill institutional voids in responding to pandemics, cyber threats, and environmental challenges. Alternatively, fragmented authority could deepen conflicts or create regulatory arbitrage that undermines collective security.

Overall, this trend underscores the necessity for stakeholders to reevaluate traditional lenses of power and influence, recognizing that critical decisions increasingly occur at intersections beyond nation-states.

Implications

For businesses, governments, and civil society, this evolving landscape suggests strategic shifts in how they operate and cooperate:

  • Engagement Strategies: Stakeholders must cultivate relationships beyond federal and national governments, encompassing city authorities, private sector leaders, and transnational NGOs to influence policy and co-create solutions.
  • Collaborative Frameworks: New models of governance could emerge, blending formal treaties with flexible coalitions and public-private partnerships that better address fast-moving global threats.
  • Regulatory Forecasting: Organizations will need anticipatory capability to navigate multiple overlapping regulatory regimes where non-state actors assert influence, including through digital platforms and infrastructure ownership.
  • Risk Management: Fragmentation of authority could create vulnerabilities in global supply chains, cybersecurity, and environmental management that require decentralized but coordinated mitigation efforts.
  • Investment in Resilience: Increasing uncertainties call for robust scenario planning to prepare for unpredictable power shifts, technological disruption, and governance innovations that may alter market and policy environments.

Failure to recognize and adapt to this trend might leave stakeholders exposed to unseen disruptions or blind spots in strategic foresight exercises. Conversely, leveraging emerging non-state actor networks could unlock new avenues for innovation, influence, and risk reduction.

Questions

  • How can traditional governments redesign their institutions to integrate and collaborate effectively with influential non-state actors?
  • What governance frameworks will balance agility with accountability in a multipolar world featuring diverse power centers?
  • How might businesses adapt their regulatory monitoring and stakeholder engagement to reflect the growing power of cities, NGOs, and multinational corporations?
  • What data and intelligence capabilities are required to anticipate shifts arising from these emerging networks and coalitions?
  • Could new forms of cross-sector alliances help manage shared global risks, and how might these be incentivized?

Keywords

multipolar global governance; non-state actors; multilateralism; global health governance; city-states; geopolitics; public-private partnerships; global risk management

Bibliography

Briefing Created: 25/10/2025
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