The Rise of AI-Enabled Social Engineering: A Weak Signal with Disruptive Potential in Cybersecurity

Cybersecurity is evolving rapidly, driven increasingly by artificial intelligence (AI) technologies that not only fortify defenses but also empower attackers. Among emerging threats, AI-powered social engineering presents a subtle yet potent weak signal of change that could redefine cyber risk paradigms over the next decade. This development could disrupt multiple industries and sectors by enabling more precise, scalable, and difficult-to-detect cyberattacks targeting human vulnerabilities.

Introduction

As AI adoption accelerates in cybersecurity, a critical but less noticed shift is underway: attackers are harnessing AI to automate and enhance social engineering tactics. Unlike typical malware or ransomware advances, AI-driven social engineering attacks focus on manipulating individuals and human workflows, leveraging vast datasets and natural language processing capabilities. This weak signal, currently overshadowed by headline malware and ransomware campaigns, carries the potential to reshape cyber risk management, requiring organizations to rethink defenses beyond traditional technical controls.

What's Changing?

Recent intelligence and forecasts underscore a rapid integration of AI by cyber threat actors to advance social engineering threats:

• AI-Driven Reconnaissance and Exploitation: According to Google’s Cybersecurity Forecast 2026, threat groups are increasingly using AI to conduct reconnaissance and craft exploits, with autonomous malware development extending into social engineering elements. This could lead to highly targeted phishing campaigns that adjust in real-time to user responses.
• AI as a Force Multiplier in Malicious Operations: A series of reports (OPFOR Journal) detail how state actors from China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea have integrated AI into malicious cyber operations, creating novel malware that might exploit human behavior through conversational AI tools to gain trust and access.
• AI-Driven Social Engineering Becomes the Top Cyber Threat for 2026: Industry analysis (ITTech Pulse) identifies AI-enabled social engineering as the leading cyber threat facing enterprises. The ability of AI to generate convincing, context-aware communication at scale may overwhelm traditional human-centric defenses.
• Deepfake Technology Amplifying Phishing and Impersonation Risks: The rise of deepfake audio and video, as warned by the Cybersecurity Council, integrates into social engineering campaigns, enabling attackers to impersonate trusted executives or partners convincingly, thus facilitating fraud and insider threats.
• Emergence of AI-Enhanced Ransomware Campaigns Targeting Critical Systems: Ransomware groups, such as Qilin (Cyberwarrior76), may incorporate AI social engineering tactics to specifically target critical enterprise software ecosystems like Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) systems, potentially disrupting supply chains and operational technology (OT) environments (InfoSecurity Magazine).

Collectively, these signals show an evolution from brute-force or indiscriminate phishing attacks to highly sophisticated, AI-driven campaigns tailored to exploitation of human behavior and trust networks. Cybercriminal ecosystems may use AI not only to generate phishing messages but also to continuously adapt tactics based on real-time victim interactions.

Why is this Important?

The shift toward AI-enabled social engineering attacks presents multiple significant impacts:

• Expanded Attack Surface via Human Vulnerabilities: Traditional cybersecurity tools are designed to protect systems and networks but often fail to address the human element effectively. AI’s use in social engineering thus targets a traditional blind spot, potentially circumventing firewalls and endpoint security.
• Increased Scalability and Efficiency of Attacks: AI allows attackers to customize messages for thousands of targets rapidly, drastically increasing the scale and success rates of social engineering campaigns while reducing attacker labor.
• Rise in Business Email Compromise and Data Breaches: With enhanced deception capabilities, attackers might breach sensitive communications more easily, risking intellectual property theft, financial fraud, and regulatory non-compliance.
• Undermining Trust in Digital Communication: As AI-generated deepfakes and voice impersonations become more common, confidence in business communications could erode, forcing organizations to reconsider reliance on conventional authentication processes.
• New Challenges for Cybersecurity Budgets and Workforce Skills: Defensive strategies may need reallocation toward behavioral analytics, employee training, and AI-assisted detection to keep pace with evolving AI-driven attack vectors.

Implications

The growing deployment of AI in social engineering may require businesses, governments, and society to adapt across multiple dimensions:

• Strategic Intelligence and Horizon Scanning: Monitoring AI-driven social engineering as an emerging threat helps organizations anticipate attack evolutions and disrupt attacker innovation cycles early.
• Investment in AI-Augmented Defense: Organizations will likely need to deploy AI-enabled cybersecurity solutions focused specifically on detecting behavioral anomalies and suspicious communications.
• Cross-Sector Collaboration and Information Sharing: Given the potential for AI-driven social engineering to affect supply chains and critical infrastructure, collaboration between private sector entities and government agencies will be pivotal to share weak signals and coordinate responses.
• Reinforcement of Human-Centric Controls: Enhanced employee awareness programs, simulated attack exercises reflecting AI sophistication, and multi-factor authentication are critical elements to counter adaptive social engineering threats.
• Regulatory and Legal Framework Evolution: The legal sector may eventually need to address new liabilities and regulations concerning AI-generated false communications, deepfake misuse, and digital identity verification.

While AI promises stronger cybersecurity capabilities—such as Google DeepMind’s autonomous threat detection (OpenTools AI news)—its dual-use nature empowers attackers to innovate rapidly. Proactive adaptation to this duality will prove critical.

Questions

• How can organizations balance investment between AI-based defensive technologies and human-centric resilience measures to prepare for AI-driven social engineering?
• In what ways might AI-enabled social engineering reshape the threat landscape for critical infrastructure and supply chain operations?
• What metrics or early warning signals can strategic intelligence teams develop to identify the initial adoption of AI-enabled social engineering within their sectors?
• How should regulatory and compliance frameworks evolve to address legal and ethical issues arising from AI-generated content used in cyberattacks?
• Could emerging AI technologies enable new forms of identity verification or digital trust that counteract social engineering at scale?

Keywords

AI enabled social engineering; deepfake cybercrime; AI threat actors; automated phishing; behavioral cybersecurity; cyber supply chain risk; quantum resistant security

Bibliography

• Google's Cybersecurity Forecast 2026 expects threat groups to adopt AI across reconnaissance, exploitation and malware development, while AI enabled tools can also reshape how cyber security teams defend the organization. / China. https://www.blackarrowcyber.com/blog/threat-briefing-21-november-2025
• Qilin has rapidly evolved from a mid-tier operator to the most prolific ransomware threat in the post-LockBit landscape, claiming 701 victims in 2025 alone. https://cyberwarrior76.substack.com/p/vectr-cast-14-day-cyber-threat-forecast-4a7
• Google's DeepMind has unveiled an AI tool designed to autonomously detect and mitigate threats, a move that underscores the growing role of AI in cybersecurity. https://opentools.ai/news/chinese-hackers-unleash-anthropics-ai-in-cyber-espionage-milestone
• AI-driven social engineering is now seen as the top cyber-threat for 2026. https://ittech-pulse.com/our-tech-insights/ai-security-risks-in-2026-the-emerging-threats-every-enterprise-must-prepare-for/
• The Cybersecurity Council urges organizations to adopt proactive measures to counter the threat of deepfake technology. https://alkabban.com/news/uae-deepfake-cybercrime-warning-2025/
• Some ransomware operations deployed in 2026 will be specifically designed to impact critical enterprise software, such as enterprise resource planning (ERP) systems, severely disrupting the supply chain of data essential for OT operations. https://www.infosecurity-magazine.com/news/google-cyberphysical-attacks/
• A series of reports issued between October and November have detailed evidence that cyber threat actors from China, Russia, Iran and North Korea are using artificial intelligence to improve the effectiveness of their malicious cyber operations and deploy novel forms of malware. https://www.opforjournal.com/p/homeland-security-brief-november