Global Scans · Geopolitics · Weekly Summary

• [New] Wars, the threat of future conflicts and other political violence activities are likely to undermine geopolitical and economic stability in 2026 and for years to come. iNLIP
• [New] War has overtaken civil unrest as the political violence exposure companies fear most (53% of all respondents globally), as conflicts in Europe and the Middle East disrupt global trade flows, strain political alliances, embolden adversarial powers and heighten risks to business assets. iNLIP
• [New] Emergency measures, restrictions on certain political activities, and executive centralization could make it seem as if Ukraine has crossed the threshold into authoritarianism. Journal of Democracy
• [New] China, India and Russia all have an entirely positive view of multipolarity, which they see as providing opportunities to gain international political influence. Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik (SWP)
• [New] Iranian-backed Iraqi militia leaders and political figures are threatening to withdraw their support for new Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al Zaidi's government amid US pressure to deny Iranian-backed figures positions of influence in the Iraqi government. Critical Threats
• [New] While the United States backs away from threats to resume bombing Iran if it does not agree to a peace deal, Israel's political establishment is reportedly itching for war. Al Jazeera
• [New] At the political level, recent statements by senior officials in Turkey indicate growing concerns regarding the reliability of existing security guarantees and the risks of nuclear proliferation in its surrounding regions. Atlantic Council
• [New] Global risks at the nexus of geopolitics and technology are increasingly disruptive as they exhibit rapid growth, unpredictability, diffusions from state to non-state actors and require a security policy paradigm shift from defence to resilience. GCSP
• [New] Serbia could be eliminated as a political actor in the Balkans without starting a pan-European war. Russia in Global Affairs
• [New] Although Europe will struggle economically in the near term, the signs that it is beginning to cohere as a political unit - particularly in response to external pressures - mean it is likely to continue to dominate the top ranks of the Global Investment Risk and Resilience Index. Henley & Partners
• [New] Probability of formal Saudi normalization inside the next two quarters is low - a function of the Saudi domestic political calendar, MBS's risk tolerance, and the F-35 transfer's resolution - but the structural path now exists in a way it did not even four or five months ago. Israel Brief
• [New] Russia may calculate that Gulf monarchies will ultimately prioritize economic relationships with Moscow over ideological alignment with Kiev, particularly if energy prices remain elevated and Western political will to sustain Ukraine wavers. Drone Warfare
• [New] The 'oil rain' phenomenon reaching populated areas of Perm city generates domestic political pressure that the Kremlin will need to manage carefully. Drone Warfare
• [New] With systems like Starlink designed for redundancy, achieving meaningful offensive effects may now require a higher degree of escalation, raising both operational and political risks. Interesting Engineering
• [New] Putin is particularly concerned that drones could be used in a possible assassination attempt by members of Russia's political elite. NV
• [New] Disinformation surrounding Ukraine's outreach efforts is likely to focus on fear, division, and false claims of foreign interference, while obscuring the underlying political realities of ethnic repression and regional discontent inside the Russian Federation. CRC
• [New] If Taiwan, out of fear, opts for unconditional political concessions, it could fall into a situation similar to Hong Kong, where its democratic institutions are dismantled, society faces intensified political repression, capital flees, and talent drains away, leading to long-term economic decline. E-International Relations
• [New] Deep domestic political polarization, fears of economic recession, inflationary pressures, weak public support for another distant war, and the possibility of insufficient allied cooperation could prevent the United States from effectively defending Taiwan at a critical moment. E-International Relations
• [New] Political uncertainty now risks undermining one of Europe's biggest industrial transformations in decades. ""
• [New] Political violence is taking center stage in Kenya's run-up to 2027's election, with the term goonism now widely used to describe gangs accused of disrupting rallies, intimidating rivals, and deepening fears over democratic backsliding. OkayAfrica
• [New] Continued fighting in eastern Congo could make it impossible to hold the next presidential election on time in 2028, reviving fears of a prolonged political crisis in the conflict-hit country. OkayAfrica
• [New] Beijing is providing political and possibly intelligence support to Tehran and could be seeking to renew flows of drone parts, air defence equipment, and missiles. Council on Foreign Relations

Last updated: 24 May 2026