Geopolitics

[New] Political developments in Hong Kong and Taiwan in 2020 will shape views of China as a global leader and business partner.
The year 2019 will be remembered for several significant developments in East Asia's political economy, particularly the prolonged trade war between the US and China and mass and violent protests in Hong Kong.
Political analysts around the world are questioning whether the conflict between Myanmar's Tatmadaw, and the Arakan Army (AA) - a well-trained and equipped guerrilla force which enjoys sweeping support and has inflicted serious casualties - is becoming a powerful national threat.
The economic impact of COVID-19 will negatively affect political instability, international relations, conflict, civil rights and violence, undoing many years of socio-economic development.
Even if the Trump administration is currently unlikely to support an international effort to distribute drugs, other advanced countries acting together could create the political pressure to bring the United States in.
Political advertising is still expected to provide a substantial boost, and live sports could return in force in H2 2020, with some sports leagues endeavoring to pick up where they left off rather than abandon their seasons entirely.
Excluding political advertising in the U.S., GroupM anticipates total television advertising to decline by 17.6% in 2020 before rebounding slightly next year.
Sudan is at risk of relapsing back into political instability and potential conflict, only a year after long-time ruler Omar al-Bashir was removed from power.
Excluding political advertising, growth is predicted to be mostly flat in 2019 at -0.2%, with a decline of -2.3% in nonpolitical television advertising for 2020.
Political tensions are expected to rise ahead of presidential and legislative elections in Iran, Israel, Jordan and Kuwait in 2020.
Looking at larger markets, GroupM expects a 0.9% decline in the US, including political advertising, and growth of 9.2% for China next year.
GroupM released its mid-year forecast, projecting a 13% decline in U.S. advertising this year, followed by a 4% growth next year, excluding political advertising.
While all media channels will benefit from the predicted increased political spending, digital media will grow the most and hit $1 billion in political ad revenue for the first time this year.
The possible postponement of the date of the first direct Somali parliamentary election in half a century, planned for the turn of 2020 and 2021, could lead to a political crisis and renewal of clan rivalry.
The new EU Gender Equality Strategy 2020-2025 will underpin the political commitment to gender equality and support strategic and systematic work for gender equality in the EU and beyond, which will also address the link between AI on gender equality.
Iran's proxies are conducting an information operation consisting of rhetorical threats to shape Kadhimi's proposed cabinet and to increase Iraqi political support for ending the US force presence ahead of a US-Iraq strategic dialogue slated for June.
The US TV industry expects a return to more healthy levels in the second half of the year, thanks to hoped - for political ad spending.
North America will remain a source of political and economic volatility in 2020, especially in the run-up to the November election in the US.
Some media reports have gone so far to say that actual foreign meddling is not even necessary as merely the fear of foreign meddling could be enough to upend the American political system beyond repair.
As political and trade tensions with the United States rise, and its image as a global leader is tarnished by riots, China has indicated it could join the Comprehensive and Progressive Trans Pacific Partnership which New Zealand belongs to.
Political advertising is expected to have a large impact on growth over the next couple of years, contributing to a +2.6% growth rate in 2019 and +8.2% growth rate in 2020 as political spending swells in a presidential election year.
Political ad spending in the U.S. will surge 57% to $9.9 billion next year from $6.3 billion in 2016 amid growth in fundraising and digital advertising.

See full forecast

Last updated: 09 August 2020