Global Scans · Geopolitics · Weekly Summary

• [New] Even if the trade talks go smoothly, the pressure about the issue of tackling the longstanding narco-politics problem in Mexico is not going to dissipate while Trump is in office. Forbes
• [New] Any decision to move against Taiwan will ultimately be political, but Xi's mistrust of the PLA suggests that Beijing's appetite for conflict may be low while the purges continue, reducing the likelihood that he will give marching orders in the near future. Merics
• [New] Rising anti-immigration mobilization in South Africa is increasing localized disruption risks in key urban centers, driven by broader economic and political pressures. On Call International Blog
• [New] A spoofing-induced aviation disaster could create political tension between: eastern NATO members demanding a hard response; western European governments favoring restraint. Robert Lansing Institute
• [New] Civil aviation occupies a unique psychological and political space because: civilian airliners symbolize international stability; aviation safety relies on trust in global systems; governments are expected to guarantee passenger safety; aviation accidents generate enormous public attention. Robert Lansing Institute
• [New] The Philippine Senate's impeachment trial of Sara Duterte will continue to generate political turbulence. KBA13 INSIGHT
• [New] If 2025 was defined by the continued rise of generative AI and growing concern regarding its vulnerabilities, 2026 looks set to be the year in which AI becomes more embedded in the physical world, more autonomous, and ever more entwined with geopolitics. Centre for Emerging Technology and Security
• [New] One other event that could cause Treasury yields to migrate lower would be any kind of a currency panic resulting from capital flight due to political and economic duress in Britain, China, Japan, or any other major countries. Navellier
• [New] Russia's war against Ukraine and its economic, demographic, and political consequences could either prolong Putin's rule (through militarized consolidation) or shorten it (through elite fragmentation and resource depletion). Atlantic Council
• [New] Without a clear opening, which could potentially be created by a major Russian defeat in the war with Ukraine, a severe internal economic or political crisis in Moscow, or fragmentation of federal coercive institutions, a revolt is unlikely to be initiated from within Chechnya. Atlantic Council
• [New] While the likelihood of a constitutional redesign in Russia that would enable major structural transformations (including legal pathways to secession) remains low, a change of leadership in Moscow is realistic, and it could serve as a trigger for political change in Grozny. Atlantic Council
• [New] Under the framework for Colombia's so-called transitional justice, amnesty will be granted for political and related crimes, though it will not cover crimes against humanity, genocide, war crimes, or other grave violations. NAOC
• [New] The increasing reliance on supplier diversity and Political Risk Insurance is the consequence of worldwide operations being disrupted through geopolitical volatility along with fragile supply networks. PA Global
• [New] For much of the early 2020s, Pakistan's foreign policy appeared paralyzed by a combination of domestic political volatility, systemic economic vulnerability, and an accumulating trust deficit with traditional Western partners. Centre of Development and Stability
• [New] Political fragmentation across Europe further strengthens the Kremlin's sense of opportunity. Global Defense Insight
• [New] Wars, the threat of future conflicts and other political violence activities are likely to undermine geopolitical and economic stability in 2026 and for years to come. iNLIP
• [New] War has overtaken civil unrest as the political violence exposure companies fear most (53% of all respondents globally), as conflicts in Europe and the Middle East disrupt global trade flows, strain political alliances, embolden adversarial powers and heighten risks to business assets. iNLIP
• [New] Emergency measures, restrictions on certain political activities, and executive centralization could make it seem as if Ukraine has crossed the threshold into authoritarianism. Journal of Democracy
• [New] China, India and Russia all have an entirely positive view of multipolarity, which they see as providing opportunities to gain international political influence. Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik (SWP)
• [New] Iranian-backed Iraqi militia leaders and political figures are threatening to withdraw their support for new Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al Zaidi's government amid US pressure to deny Iranian-backed figures positions of influence in the Iraqi government. Critical Threats
• [New] While the United States backs away from threats to resume bombing Iran if it does not agree to a peace deal, Israel's political establishment is reportedly itching for war. Al Jazeera

Last updated: 31 May 2026