ASEAN Economic Outlook
The Consensus is for GDP growth in ASEAN to rise from 2023’s levels in 2024 on stronger tourism activity, lower inflation and interest rates, and the rebound of the global tech sector. Nevertheless, muted activity in China and the El Niño weather event will pose headwinds to growth. Weaker-than-expected external demand and geopolitical tensions pose downside risks.
ASEAN Inflation
In December, ASEAN inflation fell to 2.6% from November’s 2.7% on disinflation in key regional economies, including heavyweight Indonesia. Available data points to price pressures easing further in January. Inflation should average less in 2024 than in 2023 on a high base effect and the delayed impact of monetary policy tightening. Shocks to food supply are an upside risk.
2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
GDP per capita (USD) | 4,963 | 4,679 | 5,089 | 5,438 | - |
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) | 4.5 | -3.8 | 3.9 | 5.6 | - |
Private Consumption (ann. var. %) | 5.4 | - | - | - | - |
Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) | 2.9 | - | - | - | - |
Merchandise Exports (USD bn) | 1,466 | 1,430 | 1,773 | - | - |
Merchandise Imports (USD bn) | 1,332 | 1,213 | 1,549 | - | - |
International Reserves (USD bn) | 919 | 1,077 | 1,167 | - | - |
External Debt (% of GDP) | 81.9 | 91.0 | 89.0 | 81.6 | - |
Industrial Production (ann. var. %) | 2.1 | -3.1 | 6.1 | 5.4 | - |
Unemployment (% of active population, aop) | 3.5 | 5.2 | 4.8 | - | - |
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -2.0 | -6.5 | -4.6 | -2.7 | - |
Public Debt (% of GDP) | 48.3 | 58.3 | 60.9 | - | - |
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 2.0 | 1.2 | 2.1 | - | - |
CBI Policy Rate (%, eop) | 4.13 | 2.79 | 2.69 | 4.55 | - |
Exchange Rate (LBP per USD, eop) | 7,282 | 7,542 | 7,618 | 8,393 | 8,473 |
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) | 2.7 | 3.7 | 2.1 | - | - |