Maintenance of Future Driverless Mobility Fleets through Prognostics and OTA Updates Will Save Ridesharing Providers US$3.9 Billion in 2028

The automotive market is in the process of undergoing the biggest transformation in over a century. The emergence of driverless technology is allowing shared mobility services to undercut the current cost of vehicle ownership and is providing real momentum to the mobility-as-a-service paradigm. ABI Research, a market-foresight advisory firm providing strategic guidance on the most compelling transformative technologies, finds that high Robo-Taxi vehicle utilization rates above 70% will be required to undercut the current cost of vehicle ownership of $0.71 per mile. At these rates, ensuring minimal Robo-Taxi downtime through over-the-air (OTA) updates and advanced prognostics, as well effective fleet-management will be crucial to future driverless mobility providers. Without it, Robo-Taxi downtime would cost ridesharing providers US$3.6 billion in 2028. 

“Maximizing vehicle uptime sits at the heart of the ensuing profitability for any future driverless operation,” said Shiv Patel, Research Analyst at ABI Research. “The success of future mobility services will be dictated by the providers’ ability to manage a fleet of vehicles and maximize vehicle usage through preventative maintenance, effective remote software management through OTA Updates and modular hardware architectures which will minimize the cost per mile of running such a service,  making these shared mobility services price competitive with car ownership.”

OEMs have made important strides to prepare for their transition to mobility providers. The recent string of acquisitions by Daimler A.G. to expand its myTaxi application or the recent announcement by General Motors to upgrade its existing production facilities to produce Robo-Taxis is evidence of this. However, most other OEMs, aside from the Toyota e-Palette platform, seem to be oblivious to the need for effective fleet management and preventive maintenance services to ensure the profitability of these services. Meanwhile, the current ridesharing service providers—Uber, Lyft, etc.—that are deemed by many commentators to be the principals of the future mobility market, have no experience of vehicle ownership or maintenance of large fleets of vehicles. Preventative maintenance solutions found outside of the automotive market, such as that from preventative maintenance provider, Predii and defense prognostic service provider, The Ridgetop Group, may, therefore, have an important new application in the automotive market. These solutions will not only help enable effective preventative maintenance but will also help detect safety-critical faults in sensors such as LiDAR before failure of the device, which may be crucial for functional safety and fail-safe operation.

Meanwhile, the development of Over-The-Air updates for effective software management is finally starting to gain some traction in consumer vehicle applications. OEMs have realized that these solutions will significantly help reduce the cost of software-related recalls that currently cost OEMs over US$17.3 billion globally per year. Function-on-demand OTA, as seen in current Tesla models, will also help generate significant additional revenue opportunities for OEMs, over US$2.5 billion in 2028.  Solutions from Airbiquity, HERE, Movimento, and Wind River are due to hit the market over the course of 2018 to 2020.

These findings are from ABI Research’s Smart Mobility Maintenance: Modular Hardware, OTA Updates, And Prognostics report. This report is part of the company’s Smart Mobility & Automotive research service, which includes research, data, and Executive Foresights.

About ABI Research

ABI Research provides strategic guidance for visionaries needing market foresight on the most compelling transformative technologies, which reshape workforces, identify holes in a market, create new business models and drive new revenue streams. ABI’s own research visionaries take stances early on those technologies, publishing groundbreaking studies often years ahead of other technology advisory firms. ABI analysts deliver their conclusions and recommendations in easily and quickly absorbed formats to ensure proper context. Our analysts strategically guide visionaries to take action now and inspire their business to realize a bigger picture. For more information about ABI Research’s forecasting, consulting and teardown services, visionaries can contact us at +1.516.624.2500 in the Americas, +44.203.326.0140 in Europe, +65.6592.0290 in Asia-Pacific or visit www.abiresearch.com.