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Future consumption growth is most likely to come from Asia's rising middle class and population increases. China and India will lead the charge. Demand for energy, better vehicles and food are likely to be key markets in Asia.
Global Sentiment is a coincident Indicator of emerging change. As pictured below it analyzes the mood of the pundits who are reporting on the future. Since pundits generally reflect the mood of society and change society's opinions it is a good indicator of people's current view of the future.
Economy Watch is a lagging indicator of emerging change. It auto-aggregates opinions of our 20,000+ sources on whether the global economy is likely to grow or decline soon. Get a fast, up to the minute, handle on global optimism or pessimism and act as you see fit.
VUCA World is a leading indicator of emerging change. It describes whether reported volatility, uncertainty, complexity and ambiguity of general global current conditions and situations is getting better or worse. Movements up or down in this graph generally presage the same effect in the other two charts presented here, over time. Get a fast, up to the minute, handle on global optimism or pessimism and act as you see fit.
Athena reports that pundit and expert sentiment towards future growth has slowed in the last four months. Although global economic uncertainty is stable uncertainty has dropped precipitously since March of this year.
Sentiment could shift rapidly if a clear and present geopolitical event, caused by a paucity of international leadership and diplomacy shocks the markets. This coupled with the high-risk combination of record debt, asset bubbles, low growth, potential trade wars, and limited scope for action could see the global economy spiral into a new crisis. We place the probability as high as 50%: up from 25% in January 2017. A correction could come as soon as this year but more likely 2019. Time to build scenarios and determine your course of action in each scenario we think.
Athena considers that the switch from Western to Asian economies will take another generation for the tipping point to be reached and for there to be a dramatic switch in wealth from West to East, but the emerging signals are now evolving and gaining traction.
The top ten sectors that will likely be most effected by emerging change are Retail, Food & Agriculture, Support Services, Telecoms., Government, Energy, Financial Services, Healthcare, Manufacturing and Construction.
Athena used the sources below as the top ones to create this report and determined which embedded forecasts are included in this Trend Alert. She found 6,618 forecasts in seconds on 5th June 2018 to allow us to publish this summary in less than an hour. She can turn these into PowerPoint slides and Audio files in minutes too as you wish, or we can prepare a full customized and professionally written brief for you to order covering all 6,618 forecasts.
Athena does show duplicates to aid your understanding of themes as well as contradictory forecasts. She may also show near-duplicates. You can speed read past the duplicates and near-duplicates if you wish, though the latter may show additional information. You can use the contradictory, and likely uncertain forecasts she finds to imagine different scenarios. The future is unpredictable, but we can examine the possibilities and choose our preferable future from the choices she presents.
Athena is apolitical. She will report forecasts from different viewpoints however distasteful that might be to our own values. Wearing rose-colored glasses is not her purpose; reporting potential futures is. So, we recommend you check her veracity before responding to her extracted forecasts.
Just like humans, Athena can be fallible. Do recognize that you and your associates are biased too. But whereas you tire, make mistakes and only recognize what interests you, she does not. She might miss or misinterpret as you do, but with far less frequency and she'll take uncomfortable truths and alternative ideas in her stride. But, please let us know if you feel her bias can be reduced. We want to do our best for you. And, as with any research, you should check and triangulate her findings for yourself.
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