Our Scans · Russia · Weekly Summary

WHAT'S NEXT?: Russia is becoming an independent geopolitical actor. Russia will seek to maintain the world's strategic balance of power. A resurgent Russia is likely to continue to stir up trouble across much of Central and East Europe and the Middle East. It remains to be seen whether a rapprochement is possible with the U.S. And, Russia's economy is expected to return to modest growth in late 2016 and 2017, further strengthening its hand.

• [New] The 2022 spike in the wake of COVID-19 disruptions and Russia's invasion of Ukraine proved temporary rather than cyclical. Food Security Portal
• [New] Russia plans to continue active research and fishing operations in the Antarctic region in the coming years, citing significant potential for domestic fishermen. SeafoodNews
• [New] Russia will continue to take steps aimed at the earliest possible de-escalation in the Middle East and the settlement of all existing disagreements by peaceful means. The Washington Institute
• [New] The shortage of energy resources will force Asian capitals to look for ways to obtain Russian raw materials through intermediaries, swap schemes, or requests for direct exceptions from Washington. RUSSIA'S PIVOT TO ASIA
• [New] A potential peace deal with Russia could include the prospect of EU membership as early as 2027 as a carrot for Ukrainian voters. Politico
• [New] Ukraine's Lilia USV suggests a deliberate effort to field modular, EW-resilient maritime platforms that could complicate Russian naval and riverine operations across multiple mission profiles without requiring crewed vessel exposure. Drone Warfare
• [New] Russia is operationalizing unmanned ground vehicles to sustain resupply in sectors where human drivers face prohibitive risk from artillery, FPV drones, and mines. Drone Warfare
• [New] Red Team Assessment: From Moscow's perspective, Ukraine's successful penetration of Gulf defence markets threatens to erode Russia's longstanding influence with Saudi Arabia and the UAE, states that have provided critical financial and banking services to Russian entities under sanctions pressure. Drone Warfare
• [New] Red Team Assessment: From a Russian planning perspective, the STUD program's economic model is more threatening than its current technical specifications, because it suggests Ukraine and NATO partners could field interceptors faster than Shahed production can be scaled to saturate defences. Drone Warfare
• [New] Predictive Analysis: Russia will likely alter Tor-M1 deployment patterns in Donetsk Oblast, including increased movement frequency and tighter EW screening, as the nine-day loss streak creates command pressure to reduce further attrition. Drone Warfare
• [New] Ukraine's Unmanned Systems Forces destroying nine Tor-M1 air defence systems in nine consecutive days suggests a deliberate, sustained suppression-of-air-defense campaign that, if continued, could meaningfully degrade Russia's short-range air cover along frontline positions in Donetsk Oblast. Drone Warfare
• [New] Red Team Assessment: From a Russian naval perspective, the Royal Navy's investment in persistent autonomous oceanographic sensing directly threatens the acoustic concealment that Russian submarines rely upon in the North Atlantic transit corridor. Drone Warfare
• [New] Russia's electronic warfare investments have already forced iterative Ukrainian drone redesigns, and co-production with French AI firms could accelerate the navigation hardening that currently limits Russian jamming effectiveness. Drone Warfare
• [New] Growth in Russia is expected to slow to 0.8%, while the pace of expansion elsewhere is likely to ease to 2.9% with higher energy costs tempering the growth of consumption and uncertainty affecting investment. ALBANIA DAILY NEWS
• [New] Russia's fossil fuel export earnings reach the highest level in two years, with tax revenues from crude projected to double in March. Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air
• [New] The 2026 Annual Threat Assessment of the US Intelligence Community describes Russia as seeking to restore its sphere of influence and prevent further NATO expansion in the former Soviet space, especially Ukraine. Euromaidan Press
• [New] Russian electronic warfare operators have an incentive to continue and intensify navigation spoofing precisely because the collateral effect of deflecting drones into NATO airspace imposes political costs on Ukraine at no kinetic risk to Russia. Drone Warfare
• [New] Russia plans to use the so-called Volunteer Corps on the left flank of the 3rd Combined Arms Army to launch an offensive operation. Two Marines
• [New] In April, Russia will likely intensify its offensive operations with more armored vehicles in its assaults conducted by the 70th Motorized Rifle Division, 6th Motorized Rifle Division, and 136th Motorized Rifle Brigade. Two Marines

Last updated: 18 April 2026