Russia

WHAT'S NEXT?: Russia is becoming an independent geopolitical actor. Russia will seek to maintain the world's strategic balance of power. A resurgent Russia is likely to continue to stir up trouble across much of Central and East Europe and the Middle East. It remains to be seen whether a rapprochement is possible with the U.S. And, Russia's economy is expected to return to modest growth in late 2016 and 2017, further strengthening its hand.

[New] Global natural gas production is expected to grow by 24% to 4,857 Bcm in 2040, with most additions coming from North America, followed by Russia and the Middle East.
[New] The rapid growth of the Muslim population in Russia contributes to a sharp increase in demand for Islamic banking tools expected in the coming years.
[New] Q1 2021 will be defined by a stronger year-on-year reliance on storage withdrawals and Russian, Norwegian and Algerian pipeline flows to cover stronger demand and replace LNG shifting toward Asia.
[New] The testing of the Sarmat missile has faced a number of delays but now officials say it will enter service with Russia's Strategic Missile Forces in 2022.
[New] Recent reports of a widespread Russian cyber infiltration across U.S. government networks are a sign of how great power competition will play out in the 21st century.
[New] Asia, North America and Russia will account for more than 70% of the onshore seismic purchases over the next 2 years.
[New] The drop in oil prices that Russia helped create, along with the global recession caused by coronaviruses, will cause the Russian economy to shrink the most in 2020 in 11 years.
[New] The outlook for oil production in Russia, whose energy exports are critical to budget revenues, will depend on the duration and extent of OPEC + oil production cuts.
Other primary drivers of global geopolitical risk in 2021 include great power competition among the US, China, and Russia.
Implementing the long-suffering gas project in 2021 would mean a major foreign political victory for Russia and demonstrate the European Union's ability to counteract the threat of U.S. sanctions successfully.
ACC says that chemical output in Europe, including Western, Central, and Eastern Europe but excluding Russia, declined 2.2% in 2020 and will grow 3.1% in 2021.
The Citizen Lab has documented digital attacks against journalists by threat actors from China, Russia, Ethiopia, Mexico, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia, among others.
Up to 80,000 Russian soldiers are expected to receive Russia's vaccine by the end of the year.
A rapid change in US production policy could create near-term shortages as the world experiences a surge in post-pandemic demand in the coming year.
The first SMRs will be online in 2021, in China and Russia, and western technologies will follow by 2027, in the US and Canada.
India will produce about 300 million doses of Russia's Sputnik V vaccines in 2021, a Russian official was quoted as saying, nearly three times the previously known number as deals have been signed with more manufacturers.
The new (super-chilled) cold war between the US and Russia LNG/gas in Europe: The delayed completion of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline in 2 Q 2021 will join the recently-completed Trans Adriatic Pipeline (TAP) and rebounding Algerian gas flows as incremental gas supply flowing into Europe.
On the positive side for prices, OPEC reduced its supply estimate for 2021 by 100,000 barrels a day mainly due to downward revisions in Russia's output.
Biden will fix US ties with Europe, and NATO will increase military deployment in the west and southwest of Russia, adding that Russia is having more and more challenges with situation in its neighboring countries, so Russia needs more support from China.
In CIS countries, for 2021, central banks are expected to confirm expansionary stances in Russia and Ukraine, with Russia likely increasing policy rates again from 2022 after a final cut of 25 bp still foreseen in 2021.

Last updated: 16 January 2021

Russia

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