Global Scans · Russia · Weekly Summary

WHAT'S NEXT?: Russia is becoming an independent geopolitical actor. Russia will seek to maintain the world's strategic balance of power. A resurgent Russia is likely to continue to stir up trouble across much of Central and East Europe and the Middle East. It remains to be seen whether a rapprochement is possible with the U.S. And, Russia's economy is expected to return to modest growth in late 2016 and 2017, further strengthening its hand.

• [New] EUCOM and NATO are strengthening their ability to respond to the chronic threat that Russia poses to global stability and European security in hopes of deterring future Russian aggression against NATO. Institute for the Study of War
• [New] Ukraine will run out of missiles for the launchers it already has in fairly short order if the United States does not continue to support Ukraine and stressed that the US failure to provide Ukraine with additional military assistance has generated battlefield effects that favor Russia. Institute for the Study of War
• [New] Delays in Western military assistance have forced Ukraine to cede the battlefield initiative to Russia and that the Ukrainian military cannot plan a successful counteroffensive or defensive effort without knowing when and what kind of aid Ukraine will receive. Institute for the Study of War
• [New] Russia may sabotage undersea cables to punish Western nations for supporting Ukraine, while global security risks have risen further following the Gaza war. World Pipelines
• [New] US officials have recently warned Beijing against providing indirect aid to the Russian war effort and regularly urge China to wield its influence to help bring about peace in Ukraine. DAWN.COM
• [New] As Russia also extensively uses drones, including for attacks against Ukrainian infrastructure, enhancing Ukraine's drone capabilities is crucial for both offensive actions and bolstering their defences against similar threats. Army Recognition
• [New] Chinese companies could face significant consequences if they provide material support for Russia's war on Ukraine. CNN
• [New] Russia's use of North Korean missiles in its assault in Ukraine is giving Pyongyang a rare chance to test its weapons in combat and perhaps take away lessons that could improve their performance. The Japan Times
• [New] The Defense Department is dealing with other threats around the world: Russia is two years into its invasion of Ukraine and the Middle East has been destabilized after the start of the Israel-Hamas war. Defense One
• [New] A drone attack has hit a nuclear reactor at the Russian-held Zaporizhzhia power plant in Ukraine, raising the risk of a 'major accident'. LBC
• [New] Ukraine would lose to Russia and other countries would be at risk of attack if the United States Congress did not approve a $60 b military aid package that Republicans have blocked for months. Al Jazeera
• [New] Russia's use of North Korean missiles during its offensive in Ukraine presents a unique opportunity for Pyongyang to assess its weaponry in actual combat scenarios, potentially gaining insights to enhance their effectiveness. The Kyiv Independent
• [New] Many senators have echoed the White House's warnings that without a fresh infusion of weapons from the United States, Ukraine risks ceding its war to Russia. Washington Post
• [New] Zelensky cautioned that the arrival of all promised F-16 fighter jets from Ukraine's Western partners in 2024 will provide Ukraine with only 10% of the fighter aircraft Ukraine would need to completely defeat Russian aviation and restore Ukraine's ability to operate effectively in the air domain. Institute for the Study of War
• [New] If Russian forces sustain the tempo of their current missile and drone strikes then Ukraine will likely lack the air defence missile stocks needed to protect Ukrainian cities and critical infrastructure. Institute for the Study of War
• [New] In scenarios where the US and its allies face off against Russia, China, or both, Americans generally expect a victory for Western nations. Euromaidan Press
• [New] US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has warned of significant consequences for China if its companies provide material support for Russia in its war against Ukraine. Al Jazeera
• [New] Ukrainian drones destroy invaders, protect the lives of Ukrainian soldiers on the front lines, and help Ukraine degrade Russia's war potential. Ukrinform
• [New] The State Department accused South Africa of falling for Russian propaganda and influence, as well as warning all African countries to remain wary of China's interests and overtures. DNyuz
• [New] Tajik migrants in Russia have described to the media the increased hostility towards them and their efforts to conceal their nationality for fear of reprisals. Human Rights Watch
• [New] From a security perspective, if the US becomes less willing to fund a potent military capability through Nato, and less willing to engage with and protect its allies, it will start to look more like China or Russia. The Daily Star
• Oil supplies faced fresh threats from Ukrainian attacks on Russian energy facilities and escalating conflict in the Middle East. Proactiveinvestors UK
• U.S. crude oil futures settled 1.7% higher at $85.15 a barrel as oil supplies faced fresh threats from Ukrainian attacks on Russian energy facilities, while Wall Street's main indexes dropped as recent strong economic data raised doubts over the three rate cuts that the Fed has outlined for 2024. EconoTimes

Last updated: 13 April 2024