Global Scans · Russia · Weekly Summary

WHAT'S NEXT?: Russia is becoming an independent geopolitical actor. Russia will seek to maintain the world's strategic balance of power. A resurgent Russia is likely to continue to stir up trouble across much of Central and East Europe and the Middle East. It remains to be seen whether a rapprochement is possible with the U.S. And, Russia's economy is expected to return to modest growth in late 2016 and 2017, further strengthening its hand.

• [New] Russia will attack a Nato country within the next five years. Counterfire
• [New] The United States would benefit from a deeper understanding of military and dual-use dealings between Iran, Russia, and China - not just to assess their current scope and future threat potential, but also to diligently monitor, dissuade, and disrupt them when necessary. The Washington Institute
• [New] Russian forces are currently unable to build out a strategic reserve and will therefore likely be constrained to grinding, slow advances at their current rate and scale in the coming year. Critical Threats
• [New] In exchange for the North's continued provision of artillery ammunition, short-range ballistic missiles, and even soldiers, Russia is expected to transfer advanced military technology. The Diplomat
• [New] North Korea will concentrate on intensifying its strategic partnership with Russia, which has evolved into a vital two-way military exchange. The Diplomat
• [New] As North Korea has supplied ammunition and deployed its troops to Russia to help Moscow during the Ukraine War, there could be an opportunity for Pyongyang to receive necessary satellite technology from Moscow in return for its support. The Diplomat
• [New] Ukraine's defensive capacity continues to erode due to shortages of manpower and equipment, which gives Russia local opportunities to push the front forward. The Moscow Times
• [New] Should a peace agreement be reached, Russian exports may normalize, sanctions could ease, and increased supply might exert downward pressure on prices. Market Insights
• [New] The current mood is a threat to the Kremlin. / Russia Foreign Affairs Magazine
• [New] Russia could see Kiev was in no hurry to end the conflict by peaceful means. Al Jazeera
• [New] Russia's state armament programme for 2027-2036 provides for modernising the nuclear triad and building an all-embracing air defence system. Defence Industry Europe
• [New] Russia has repeatedly said it was prepared to continue fighting in Ukraine if no peace deal were reached, saying it was confident it could achieve its war aims through military means. The Guardian
• [New] While a direct Russian attack on the UK is unlikely, hybrid threats are intensifying. Al Jazeera
• [New] Even a minimal victory for Moscow could embolden Russia to step up its hybrid warfare attacks in the coming years. 19FortyFive
• [New] Investors are watching for developments in the Russia-Ukraine peace process and the possible impact on future oil prices, as a peace agreement could lead to the removal of international sanctions against Russia's oil sector. MarineLink
• [New] Looking ahead to 2026, PS contributors predict a year marked by escalating geopolitical risks and deepening economic fragmentation, with the United States and China competing for technological and military dominance, and Europe struggling to keep pace - and keep Russia at bay. Project Syndicate
• [New] Ukraine's successful deployment of the Sub Sea Baby UUV against a Russian submarine in a protected naval base demonstrates that underwater autonomous drones can now bypass surface-focused harbour defences, fundamentally changing naval base vulnerability calculus worldwide. Drone Warfare
• 2026 will be the first difficult year since the start of the full scale invasion but assessed that growing economic problems will not lead to social or political problems. / Russia Critical Threats
• Mobile internet disruptions were recorded in at least half of Russia's regions every day in November. The Moscow Times
• In return, Ukraine has bombed several Russian oil refineries and been targeting Moscow's shadow fleet of tankers in increasingly daring drone attacks, which it hopes will impose costs in terms of increased insurance, expensive delays and ships not daring to travel. The Guardian

Last updated: 03 January 2026