Our Scans · Russia · Weekly Summary

WHAT'S NEXT?: Russia is becoming an independent geopolitical actor. Russia will seek to maintain the world's strategic balance of power. A resurgent Russia is likely to continue to stir up trouble across much of Central and East Europe and the Middle East. It remains to be seen whether a rapprochement is possible with the U.S. And, Russia's economy is expected to return to modest growth in late 2016 and 2017, further strengthening its hand.

• [New] European officials described the activity as part of a broader pattern of Russian hybrid operations extending into space, with Germany's defence minister Boris Pistorius warning that satellite networks represent a critical vulnerability for modern societies. JD Supra
• [New] Mykolaiv Oblast Military Administration Head Vitaliy Kim stated that Russian forces are changing their tactics and launching Shahed drones during the day, increasing the risk that drone debris will fall on civilians. Critical Threats
• [New] The establishment of joint Ukrainian-European production facilities outside of Ukraine throughout Europe will ensure continued Ukrainian defence industrial production in the face of intensified Russian long-range strikes across Ukraine. Critical Threats
• [New] Security guarantees without significant deterrence measures will not prevent Russia from renewing its aggression against Ukraine at a time of its choosing and are particularly important to justify any territorial concessions Ukraine may be forced to accept. Critical Threats
• [New] The Kremlin may additionally be planning to blame Ukraine for a Russian-generated radiological incident in Ukraine, possibly to convince the West to abandon Ukraine or as a further attempt to break Ukrainian will to continue to resist. Critical Threats
• [New] Russia is using the SVR's claim as an excuse to threaten the UK and France with potential nuclear strikes, likely in order to disrupt ongoing discussions about Western security guarantees for Ukraine. Critical Threats
• [New] Europe desperately needs Berlin's strength to confront Russia, yet unchecked power risks reviving historical fears, internal competition, and strategic fragmentation. Caliber.az
• [New] Russian and Chinese naval vessels will participate in naval exercises with Iran in late February, and the Liaowang-1 maritime space-tracking ship, escorted by a Type 055 class destroyer and a Type 052 D destroyer, recently arrived in the Gulf of Oman. The National Interest
• [New] 2026 will likely see multiple attempts to derail direct peace talks currently under way between Russia and Ukraine. Al Jazeera
• [New] Abuse of identity and single sign-on (SSO) platforms are likely the path that Russian state-sponsored threat actors may take, as they slowly diverge away from malware heavy campaigns in favour of credential-based intrusions. Bizclik Media Ltd
• [New] Russian state-sponsored cyber threat actors maintained persistent pressure on Ukrainian and NATO-aligned critical infrastructure, particularly in the energy, logistics and communications sectors, to collect intelligence, map networks and position themselves for potential disruptive action. Bizclik Media Ltd
• [New] The energy infrastructure campaign is a key element of Russia's theory of victory: systematic destruction of Ukraine's capacity to sustain modern industrial society will eventually break civilian will. Futura Doctrina
• [New] Although NATO states can and must build up their militaries without needing Moscow's buy-in, establishing new lines of communication to the Kremlin will require Russian agreement. Foreign Affairs Magazine
• [New] Allies will need new formats for dialog and interaction with Russia to reduce risks and contain tensions. Foreign Affairs Magazine
• [New] The disruption of Russian access to Starlink became a major contributing factor, allowing Ukraine to regain around 300 square kilometers of territory. Ukraine's Arms Monitor
• [New] India will reportedly dramatically decrease or halt its direct and indirect purchases of Russian oil. Critical Threats
• [New] Russian forces will likely spend about six months trying to find an alternative to Starlink. Critical Threats
• [New] Russia will almost certainly have to open up to attract new foreign investment and to encourage new Russian businesses to grow and flourish. Rand Corporation
• [New] Another Reuters source stated that Russia will face very high financial risks in the second half of 2026, however, as Western sanctions and Russia's high borrowing costs have limited Russia's access to capital markets. Critical Threats
• [New] To achieve a credible deterrent to Russia that is no longer - or at least less-dependent on the United States capabilities, European countries will have to work out their different strategic visions. Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists
• [New] To combat the threat, Human Rights Watch is urging nations to push back against aggressive superpowers such as Russia, China and now also the United States. Euronews
• [New] The Russian threat, the new context of geopolitical competition and uncertainty regarding US commitment make it necessary to develop autonomous capabilities and reinforce the European industrial base. Elcano Royal Institute

Last updated: 28 February 2026