Global Scans · Russia · Weekly Summary

WHAT'S NEXT?: Russia is becoming an independent geopolitical actor. Russia will seek to maintain the world's strategic balance of power. A resurgent Russia is likely to continue to stir up trouble across much of Central and East Europe and the Middle East. It remains to be seen whether a rapprochement is possible with the U.S. And, Russia's economy is expected to return to modest growth in late 2016 and 2017, further strengthening its hand.

• [New] The Russian General Staff is reportedly creating a new drone brigade that will incorporate a large variety of unmanned systems, likely as part of wider efforts to centralize drone units in the Russian military. Critical Threats
• [New] Russian forces continue attempts to infiltrate in small groups of two to three servicemembers in the Pokrovsk direction but that Ukrainian forces have established a multikilometer kill zone (an area of elevated drone strike risk) around Pokrovsk. Critical Threats
• [New] Europe's skies and digital infrastructure have come under increasing threat from a surge in GPS jamming and spoofing attacks, with Russia at the center of mounting allegations. Grand Pinnacle Tribune
• [New] Russia downplayed the impact of Russian strikes on the Chornobyl NPP, even as Russia continues to pose increasing threats to all of Ukraine's NPPs. Critical Threats
• [New] Senior Kremlin officials, including Russian President Vladimir Putin, have repeatedly demonstrated that Russia will not be satisfied with a peace settlement that does not meet Russia's uncompromising terms or that only pertains to Ukraine and does not radically restructure NATO. Critical Threats
• [New] Russia has leveraged its nuclear arsenal and other strategic weapons to constrain Western military support for Ukraine, threatening catastrophic escalation in the event of strategic defeat. OPFOR Journal
• [New] Russia plans to turn South Korea into one of major trade destinations for the supplies of its fish and seafood in years to come. SeafoodNews
• [New] Russia has spent more than half of its sovereign wealth fund to bridge the widening gap between revenues and spending and has turned to expensive borrowing that will take years to pay back. Critical Threats
• [New] Falling Russian oil and gas revenues and Russia's continued depletion of its liquid reserves will likely complicate Kremlin efforts to fund a protracted war in Ukraine. Critical Threats
• [New] China, France, India, Russia and the United States will remain the center of gravity for global nuclear. ""
• [New] Whoever controls the Arctic will shape the 21st century, and America cannot cede that ground to China or Russia. The Standing For Freedom Center
• [New] Russia will likely expand targeting of logistics hubs during winter months to maximize economic disruption while Western air defence systems remain concentrated on military and energy infrastructure protection. Drone Warfare
• [New] Russia's integration of booby-trapped Starlink terminals into strike drones transforms downed UAVs into secondary threats, weaponizing counter-drone recovery operations and forcing Ukrainian forces to treat all wreckage as improvised explosive devices. Drone Warfare
• [New] Russia will likely disperse critical production capacity and invest heavily in passive defence measures around remaining consolidated facilities, while accelerating drone production timelines to offset attrition. Drone Warfare
• [New] Russia will probably respond with swarm interceptor tactics or directed energy weapons to overwhelm evasion systems, forcing Ukraine toward expendable decoy drones or hardened reconnaissance platforms. Drone Warfare
• [New] Red Team Assessment: From Russia's perspective, the Geran-5 anti-air variant addresses a critical vulnerability: Ukraine's improving air defences that threaten mass drone operations. Drone Warfare
• [New] Russia will likely prioritize hardening critical military-industrial facilities and enhancing air defence coverage around drone production centers. Drone Warfare
• [New] Russia is launching Zorky, a domestic satellite internet system rivaling Starlink, with serial terminal production starting in 2026 and an orbital constellation exceeding 300 low-Earth orbit satellites by 2027, using Soyuz and Angara rockets for sovereignty. GeopoliticsUnplugged Substack
• [New] The UK has already announced a ban on maritime services for Russian energy shipping, scheduled to take effect in 2026, setting a precedent that Sweden and Finland hope the EU will follow. EIN News
• [New] Russia's gray-zone provocations against NATO members, including cyberattacks, drone incursions, and infrastructure sabotage, have intensified and could escalate into direct confrontation. Visual Capitalist
• [New] Russia's president Vladimir Putin seeks recognition of all occupied land as Russian and guarantees that Ukraine will never join NATO, while Ukraine's president Volodymyr Zelenskyy seeks a full withdrawal of Russian troops and security guarantees to prevent further Russian aggression. Manifold
• [New] Russia plans to significantly replenish the Russian Aerospace Forces in 2026 to both replace losses and further enhance VKS capabilities, but will likely struggle to achieve replenishment or modernization at scale. Critical Threats

Last updated: 24 January 2026