Global Scans · Russia · Weekly Summary

WHAT'S NEXT?: Russia is becoming an independent geopolitical actor. Russia will seek to maintain the world's strategic balance of power. A resurgent Russia is likely to continue to stir up trouble across much of Central and East Europe and the Middle East. It remains to be seen whether a rapprochement is possible with the U.S. And, Russia's economy is expected to return to modest growth in late 2016 and 2017, further strengthening its hand.

• [New] Russian forces will be able to amass drone and missile stockpiles that it can use to launch large, combined strikes in the future, while Ukraine ceases its strikes against Russian energy infrastructure. Critical Threats
• [New] Russia will not be satisfied with a peace settlement that does not meet all of its demands and is instead using informational tools to push for Ukraine's pre-emptive capitulation. Critical Threats
• [New] The Russian military command is reportedly going to use the Grom-Kaskad drone brigade as a basis to form the new Russian unmanned systems forces brigade that Russian federal authorities are actively recruiting for. Critical Threats
• [New] If the Russian system achieves its projected performance, it could have a major impact on how future missions to Mars and beyond are planned, both for scientific exploration and for potential military or logistical applications. Yahoo Tech
• [New] Russia is quietly testing a new plasma propulsion system that, if it performs as claimed, could dramatically change how long it takes to travel to Mars. Yahoo Tech
• [New] Russia is expected to maintain its air base and naval facility on Syria's Mediterranean coast. Just Security
• [New] Russian forces appear to be using increased strikes to assemble assault groups, which Ukrainian forces rapidly detect and target, effectively turning assembly areas into kill zones (areas of elevated drone strike risk). Critical Threats
• [New] Drone swarms could provide persistent attacks in a limited time frame, which would increase lethality and potentially help Ukraine move closer to their goal of causing 50,000 Russian casualties a month. Sarcastosaurus
• [New] Russian spies will step up attacks against the UK as part of an undeclared war on the West. BBC News
• [New] Russia is expected to continue its campaigns to destabilize Western geopolitics through election interference. ZDNet
• [New] In 2026 Russia's economy will face an elevated risk of sliding into recession amid mounting inflationary pressure, a shrinking tax base, and the expansion of the shadow economy. Ukrinform
• [New] In 2026, Russia plans to increase the production of new tanks by 20%, bringing output to about 260 units. Ukrinform
• [New] In NDS 2026, Russia remains a serious threat, but it is no longer regarded as the actor shaping U.S. long-term strategic planning. Modern Diplomacy
• [New] At current rates, combined Russian and Ukrainian casualties may be as high as 1.8 million and could reach 2 million by spring.
• [New] The risk of nuclear war has returned really seriously since the Russian invasion of Ukraine. UW-Madison MacArthur Fellow warns of nuclear fallout ri
• [New] As tensions between Russia and the West remain, it is very likely that pro-Russia and anti-West hacktivist collectives will continue to target Western institutions throughout 2026. ZeroFOX
• [New] Russia's approach suggests a strategic wager: that NATO's political caution, legal constraints, and internal divisions will limit its ability to impose meaningful costs for actions below the threshold of war. Hungarian Conservative
• [New] Gray areas of Russian provocations against NATO members, including cyberattacks, drone incursions, and infrastructure sabotage, have intensified and could escalate into direct confrontation. Infotag
• [New] The Russian General Staff is reportedly creating a new drone brigade that will incorporate a large variety of unmanned systems, likely as part of wider efforts to centralize drone units in the Russian military. Critical Threats
• [New] Russian forces continue attempts to infiltrate in small groups of two to three servicemembers in the Pokrovsk direction but that Ukrainian forces have established a multikilometer kill zone (an area of elevated drone strike risk) around Pokrovsk. Critical Threats
• [New] Europe's skies and digital infrastructure have come under increasing threat from a surge in GPS jamming and spoofing attacks, with Russia at the center of mounting allegations. Grand Pinnacle Tribune

Last updated: 31 January 2026