Our Scans · Russia · Weekly Summary

WHAT'S NEXT?: Russia is becoming an independent geopolitical actor. Russia will seek to maintain the world's strategic balance of power. A resurgent Russia is likely to continue to stir up trouble across much of Central and East Europe and the Middle East. It remains to be seen whether a rapprochement is possible with the U.S. And, Russia's economy is expected to return to modest growth in late 2016 and 2017, further strengthening its hand.

• [New] The Kremlin's efforts to close the Russian open internet are degrading the effectiveness of Russian air raid warning systems in border regions. Critical Threats
• [New] Any potential mobilization efforts the Kremlin could undertake in the near future would not provide combat-ready forces in time for the summer offensive. / Russia Critical Threats
• [New] Russian electronic warfare systems are systematically disrupting satellite navigation in the Baltic Sea, creating risks for shipping and aviation. RBC-Ukraine
• [New] Drones are estimated to account for about 70% of Russian casualties, enabling strikes to be carried out remotely and reducing the risk to pilots and aircrews. Reuters
• [New] ISW continues to assess that Russia has de facto annexed Belarus and that any US support for the Belarusian economy will likely directly benefit the Russian economy and war effort. Critical Threats
• [New] Ukrainian Southern Defence Forces Spokesperson Colonel Vladyslav Voloshyn reported that Russian forces are maintaining a high offensive tempo along the southern front and have extended the kill zone (an area of elevated drone strike risk) up to 20 kilometers. Critical Threats
• [New] Russia plans to deploy four ground stations for controlling long-range drones to Belarus and further deploy an additional unspecified number to occupied Ukraine. Critical Threats
• [New] ISW continues to assess that Russian forces are unlikely to seize the Fortress Belt in 2026 but will likely make some tactical gains at a significant cost. Critical Threats
• [New] The scenario: sustained drone bombardment of European cities, calibrated below the threshold of a NATO response, while nuclear threats deter conventional retaliation. / Russia Stars and Stripes
• [New] The US decision to lift sanctions against Belarus will likely directly benefit Russia's economy and therefore Russia's war effort. Critical Threats
• [New] Russian electronic warfare and counter-UAS investments will likely need to scale in response to a Ukrainian drone industrial base that, if successfully established, could sustain higher sortie rates indefinitely. Drone Warfare
• [New] Ukraine is moving to consolidate strike, logistics, and electronic support functions into a single heavy UAS platform, which could reduce Ukrainian dependence on dedicated ISR assets and complicate Russian electromagnetic emissions management near the front line. Drone Warfare
• [New] Predictive Analysis: Russia will likely increase deployment of electronic warfare systems targeting drone navigation in sectors where Ukrainian remote mining has been most effective, as the February casualty figures provide sufficient operational incentive to prioritize countermeasures. Drone Warfare
• [New] Red Team Assessment: From Russia's perspective, the Rubicon strike exposes a critical vulnerability: concentrating classified UAV training and analytical infrastructure in occupied territory within Ukrainian long-range drone range created an unacceptable single point of failure. Drone Warfare
• [New] Predictive Analysis: Russia will likely relocate surviving Rubicon command and training elements deeper into Russian territory, away from long-range Ukrainian drone reach, as the Donetsk strike demonstrates the center's forward basing is no longer tenable. Drone Warfare
• [New] Predictive Analysis: Russia will likely intensify drone and ballistic missile strikes against Ukrainian infrastructure targets following the formal suspension of trilateral talks, as the diplomatic constraint on escalation has been removed. Drone Warfare
• [New] Ukraine's systematic targeting shift toward Russian artillery, logistics, and air defence nodes correlates with a measurable reduction in Russian assault tempo and suggests the anticipated Russian spring-summer offensive has been materially degraded before it could achieve operational momentum. Drone Warfare
• [New] For Vladimir Putin, agriculture is clearly a priority with the president targeting a further 50% rise in agricultural exports by 2030 to help support the Russian economy and give it essential clout on the international stage. FoodNavigator.com
• [New] Russia proposes sweeping powers to ban or restrict foreign AI tools Russia published proposed rules that could ban or restrict foreign AI tools such as ChatGPT, Claude, and Gemini if they do not comply with new requirements. Prompt Injection
• [New] Russian intelligence-linked threat actors are using phishing campaigns to hijack user accounts on encrypted messaging apps like Signal. Cyber Recaps
• [New] Without an effective substitute, Russian forces may struggle to co-ordinate swiftly, leaving gaps in operational control and creating opportunities for Ukraine to exploit. Yahoo News Singapore
• [New] Deepening digital isolation could turn Russia into something akin to a large, nuclear-armed North Korea and a junior partner to China. Business Insider
• ISW previously assessed that Russia's winter campaign aimed to degrade Ukraine's energy security, industrial capacity, and will to continue fighting against Russian aggression. Critical Threats

Last updated: 28 March 2026