Global Scans · Russia · Weekly Summary

WHAT'S NEXT?: Russia is becoming an independent geopolitical actor. Russia will seek to maintain the world's strategic balance of power. A resurgent Russia is likely to continue to stir up trouble across much of Central and East Europe and the Middle East. It remains to be seen whether a rapprochement is possible with the U.S. And, Russia's economy is expected to return to modest growth in late 2016 and 2017, further strengthening its hand.

• [New] Russia plans to significantly replenish the Russian Aerospace Forces in 2026 to both replace losses and further enhance VKS capabilities, but will likely struggle to achieve replenishment or modernization at scale. Critical Threats
• [New] Western sanctions on aircraft components will likely continue to constrain Russia's ability to produce military aircraft. Critical Threats
• [New] The digital arena was vulnerable: Russian cyberattacks and apparent sabotage against undersea cables demonstrated the dangers facing Europe's digital infrastructure, while Russian-origin disinformation flooded European social media. Atlantic Council
• [New] Ukrainian strike capabilities through the use of UAVs, SUVs and UUVs are increasing with the support of western countries, threatening all merchant vessels having contracts to carry Russian products in and out. All About Shipping
• [New] The activities of both NATO and Russia military information gathering operations in close proximity to the boundaries of the Russia and Belarus Union State, are unpredictable and pose threat of escalation, up to direct conflict. All About Shipping
• [New] The Baltic region remains a high-risk area due to increased NATO and Russia tensions, the threat of hybrid attacks, and irregular 'shadow fleet' operations; therefore, increased alertness and strategic route and contingency planning are a must. All About Shipping
• [New] The year 2026 if the US-Ukraine-Russia negotiations will not achieve ceasefire and peace will become very hazardous. All About Shipping
• [New] Russia and China are increasingly working together in the Arctic region, and their presence there will be a growing threat to NATO allies, said Gen. Defense News
• [New] Russia is building a lead-cooled fast reactor that could come online later this decade. MIT Technology Review
• [New] If the Arctic Sea Route along the Russian coast becomes available, the sea transport distance between Europe and East Asia will be shortened by about 40%, compared to the Suez route via the Middle East and the Mediterranean. Mirage News
• [New] EU sanctions on Russian oil and LNG intensify, Middle East risks persist, and U.S.-Venezuela relations are unstable, elections in Brazil and Colombia, and USMCA review add uncertainty risking supply chains and trade flows. ADI Analytics
• [New] The reforms in Russia are moving forward and will continue to progress in small steps so as not to risk unexpected consequences or instability. The Daily Star
• [New] As government finances tighten and household purchasing power declines, uncertainty surrounding the sustainability of foreign business operations in Russia will continue to rise. Modern Diplomacy
• [New] Russia will use US actions to bolster its justifications for its invasion of Ukraine. Australian Broadcasting Corporation
• [New] Russian Arctic militarization presents the primary conventional threat requiring strategic response. Discovery Alert
• [New] The Russian export oil price in November, which will be used for tax payments in late December, will result in an additional monthly revenue shortfall of RUB 100 billion (approximately $1.25 billion). New Eurasian Strategies Centre
• [New] Russia holds air superiority and larger stockpiles; drones let Ukraine punch far behind lines without risking lives. Medium
• [New] Peace treaty talks between Ukraine and Russia will remain unresolved by the end of the year. Gartner
• [New] Sovereign power is an argument Putin could someday use in other parts of the former Soviet Union, like the South Caucasus and Central Asia, which the Kremlin thinks of as within its sphere of influence. Tumblr
• [New] Russia plans to further increase crab exports to China in 2026, with particular focus on live crab supplies, which remain in strong demand among Chinese consumers. SeafoodNews
• [New] No one in Russia plans to launch a full-scale mobilization process - at least not publicly. RBC-Ukraine
• [New] Low-cost drones may be used, not just as a force multiplier but as an air force in its own right to strike deep inside Russian territory without risking the loss of a multi-million-dollar fighter jet or a human life. Strafasia | Strategy, analysis, News and insight of Eme
• [New] ISW continues to assess that Russia would likely be able to pose a significant threat to NATO earlier than many Western estimates, particularly in the event of a future ceasefire in Ukraine that would free up Russian forces and allow Russia to rearm and reconstitute. Critical Threats

Last updated: 17 January 2026