Global Scans · Russia · Weekly Summary

WHAT'S NEXT?: Russia is becoming an independent geopolitical actor. Russia will seek to maintain the world's strategic balance of power. A resurgent Russia is likely to continue to stir up trouble across much of Central and East Europe and the Middle East. It remains to be seen whether a rapprochement is possible with the U.S. And, Russia's economy is expected to return to modest growth in late 2016 and 2017, further strengthening its hand.

• [New] The Russian threat, the new context of geopolitical competition and uncertainty regarding US commitment make it necessary to develop autonomous capabilities and reinforce the European industrial base. Elcano Royal Institute
• [New] In return, Russia is expected to supply Iran with 48 advanced Su-35 fighter jets which would dramatically improve Iranian air defence capability starting in 2026. Alma Research and Education Center
• [New] Russia will not be satisfied with only Ukraine's surrender of Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhia, and Kherson oblasts, and that Russia must additionally achieve regime change in Kiev to remove any allegedly Russophobic and neo-Nazi government. Critical Threats
• [New] In the Barents Sea near the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) area of operation, China plays a dual-use role in facilitating Russia's ability to pose a hard-power threat to the US and its allies in northern Europe. Hudson Institute
• [New] Europe's existential test is whether its political experiment of pooled sovereignty can be leveraged and expanded in a world where Russia threatens its security, China threatens its economy, and the United States has become a more uncertain partner. Atlantic Council
• [New] Rising tensions with Russia and China, combined with ice melt and studies highlighting Arctic mineral potential, have renewed interest from both governments and private actors. Impakter
• [New] HMS Prince of Wales carrier strike group will deploy to the North Atlantic and Arctic in 2026 to deter Russian aggression. The Rio Times
• [New] China and Russia are investing heavily in counterspace capabilities intended to hold U.S. systems at risk. Military.com
• [New] Countering peer adversaries like China and Russia, whose satellite fleets and counterspace weapons pose escalating risks, requires resilient space systems as per the 2026 strategy. Military.com
• [New] European leaders are debating bolstering nuclear arsenals due to Russian threats and US security commitment doubts, with Germany and France discussing deterrence. ST
• [New] Russia's decision to replace the head of its negotiating team ahead of the next round of US-brokered talks could be aimed at delaying progress. The Independent
• [New] Donald Trump's use of force against Iran and Venezuela and threat to use it against Greenland, following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, are widely seen as representing a turning point in international relations, linked to the rise of authoritarianism in domestic politics. E-International Relations
• [New] Despite ongoing efforts by UK Space Command to build capability - with much more limited financial resources than peers such as France or Germany - Britain does not have many sovereign systems to match or deter Russian counterspace threats. Britain's World
• [New] India Pulls Out of Russian-backed Mali Lithium Project over Security Risks, Sources Say Security risks are prompting India to pull out of a lithium project in Mali backed by Russia's state nuclear corporation Rosatom. Africa Center
• [New] The disruption by Russia of gas supplies to Western Europe could significantly impact industrial production, including vehicle production, in significant markets such as Germany. SEC EDGAR
• [New] In Cold War terms, Moscow responded to Greenland's militarization with deterrence and strategic counters, not direct military confrontation - a pattern Russia likely would try to emulate now, balancing fear of NATO expansion with avoiding hot conflict. Robert Lansing Institute
• [New] Additional export restrictions will apply to items and technologies linked to Russia's military effort, such as materials used in the production of explosives. Mondaq
• [New] As a further step, the 20th sanctions package will impose prohibitions on the provision of maintenance and other services for liquefied natural gas tankers and icebreakers, in order to limit Russia's ability to develop future gas export projects. Mondaq
• [New] The war between Russia and Ukraine, which will enter its fifth year in 2026, has further increased military spending, and the average level of European military budgets is higher than it was at the end of the Cold War. Hungarian Conservative
• [New] While many EU countries favour tougher measures against Moscow, others, heavily dependent on Russian energy supplies, such as Hungary, have shown caution over the risk of escalating confrontation with Russia. Nhan Dan Online
• [New] The Russian invasion of Ukraine has fundamentally altered the security landscape in which NATO is operating, posing a threat not seen since its inception. Atlantic Council
• [New] Within the next three years, Russia will likely escalate its ongoing gray zone campaign against NATO member states, culminating in a limited military incursion into NATO's northeastern flank. Belfer Center

Last updated: 21 February 2026