Global Scans · Russia · Weekly Summary

WHAT'S NEXT?: Russia is becoming an independent geopolitical actor. Russia will seek to maintain the world's strategic balance of power. A resurgent Russia is likely to continue to stir up trouble across much of Central and East Europe and the Middle East. It remains to be seen whether a rapprochement is possible with the U.S. And, Russia's economy is expected to return to modest growth in late 2016 and 2017, further strengthening its hand.

• [New] By 2025, Russia's geopolitical strategy will still be focused on challenging Western dominance and forging new alliances with powers outside of the West. Journal
• [New] Additional measures against Russian oil could pose a larger supply threat than the proposed Venezuela blockade, even as Europe and the UK moved to tighten pressure on Moscow. Ag Bull Trading
• [New] Russian strikes could effectively split Ukraine's energy grid into two parts along an east-west divide. Critical Threats
• [New] Russia must fully destroy Ukraine's power grid and that failing to do so could undermine Russia's offensive operations in Ukraine. Critical Threats
• [New] Without any New START Agreement, there will be no limits on U.S. and Russian nuclear weapons stockpiles. Tri Valley CAREs
• [New] Russia likely seeks to occupy the entirety of Ukraine on the east bank of the Dnipro River and seize Odesa and Mykolaiv oblasts by the end of 2026, depriving Ukraine of access to the Black Sea. Critical Threats
• [New] The Kremlin is unwilling to accept the original 28-point peace plan but that Russia will instead demand further modifications should Ukraine agree to it. Critical Threats
• [New] The USA might be more powerful than China in some respects but China is a more predictable and hence a more dependable partner for Russia. E-International Relations
• [New] The core of 'flexible realism' is recognising that Russia - possessed of enormous natural and military resources - is too valuable a potential asset to alienate or to risk falling permanently into the orbit of the Chinese. E-International Relations
• [New] Ukraine will likely continue in its campaign against Russian oil shipping, purposefully targeting vessels linked to Russia's shadow fleet, and conducting attacks on ports and oil terminals more regularly. Crisis24
• [New] Recent Ukrainian attacks on Russian-linked vessels and energy infrastructure will likely prompt Russia to conduct intensified retaliatory strikes on Ukrainian ports and commercial vessels. Crisis24
• [New] The switch to covering financing costs seems to be in line with a larger push in 2025 to shake up the defence industry in light of lessons learned from Russia's brutal war on Ukraine and fears of competition with China. The Intercept
• [New] More severe options could target Russian export volumes by embargoing a specific port, deciding not to grant waivers for Rosneft and Lukoil sanctions, or even applying secondary sanctions on buyers of Russian oil. Atlantic Council
• [New] China and Russia now settle the vast majority of their trade in renminbi, which could theoretically pave the way for a Chinese-led, anti-Western global financial system. Atlantic Council
• [New] Russia could be able to attack a member country in the next four to five years. SKY
• [New] If in 2030, as well as occupying and russifying Ukrainian territory larger than the size of Portugal and Slovenia combined, Moscow can privately boast that the rest of Ukraine is insecure, dysfunctional, demoralised, depopulated and subject to strong Russian influence, then Russia will have won. The Guardian
• The broader architecture is designed to counter threats from advanced missile systems, particularly from China and Russia, and would integrate with existing sensor and tracking layers. JD Supra
• Significant U.S. diplomatic engagement will be required to mitigate the risk of conflict of Russia with Europe. JD Supra
• Ukrainian attacks on Russian energy infrastructure, including disruptions at the critical CPC Black Sea export terminal that also handles Kazakh shipments, continue to pose near-term risks to supply, offsetting concerns about longer term oversupply. MUFG Research

Last updated: 20 December 2025