Global Scans · Russia · Weekly Summary

WHAT'S NEXT?: Russia is becoming an independent geopolitical actor. Russia will seek to maintain the world's strategic balance of power. A resurgent Russia is likely to continue to stir up trouble across much of Central and East Europe and the Middle East. It remains to be seen whether a rapprochement is possible with the U.S. And, Russia's economy is expected to return to modest growth in late 2016 and 2017, further strengthening its hand.

• [New] Within the next three years, Russia will likely escalate its ongoing gray zone campaign against NATO member states, culminating in a limited military incursion into NATO's northeastern flank. Belfer Center
• [New] Putin's threat to use nuclear weapons was primarily aimed at targeting military infrastructure in Ukraine, if the West provides the Ukrainian army with ballistic missiles for targeting Russian territory. Caliber.az
• [New] The expiration on Thursday of New START, which restricted the United States and Russia to 1,550 deployed nuclear warheads each, marks the first time in decades that there is no treaty to curtail the positioning of the planet's most destructive weapons, sparking fears of a fresh arms race. Space War
• [New] Outside the 2010 arms control architecture, Russia's development of novel nuclear systems further threatens global strategic stability. United States Department of State
• [New] The expiration of New START without a successor removes the last formal constraint on U.S.-Russian nuclear forces, increasing opacity and the risk of competitive signaling that allies must absorb. Fault Lines
• [New] Predictive Analysis: Expect Russian deep-strike drones to proliferate across 300+ km ranges as Starlink integration matures, forcing Ukraine to disperse air assets across more hardened sites and expand decoy production. Drone Warfare
• [New] Russian KAB glide bombs now inflict more damage than infantry assaults near Lyman, while ambush drones have fundamentally transformed logistics warfare by creating persistent threat zones along supply routes that both sides exploit. Drone Warfare
• [New] Red Team Assessment: From Russia's perspective, losing 43 reconnaissance drones in 72 hours to a single crew indicates critical vulnerability in current ISR architecture. Drone Warfare
• [New] Russian action against the Baltic states could occur as a new front in the next global war. Belfer Center
• [New] The next era of arms control can and should continue with clear focus, but it will require the participation of more than just Russia at the negotiating table. United States Department of State
• [New] Moscow could place conventional Russian forces in Kaliningrad and western Russia on high alert, also readying long-range fires and air defence batteries to interdict or strike supporting military assets from NATO member states. Belfer Center
• [New] Russian President Vladimir Putin has stated on several occasions during the Russian-Ukrainian conflict that Russia has nuclear weapons and will use them in a moment of extreme necessity, i.e. if the territorial integrity of the Russian Federation is threatened by the West. Caliber.az
• [New] North Korea likely received technical assistance from Russia in developing military reconnaissance satellites, which could enhance North Korean intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance capabilities and thus support targeting. American Enterprise Institute - AEI
• [New] As in Germany, the militarization of the whole of society is justified with the pretext that one must defend oneself against the supposed threat from Russia. World Socialist Web Site
• [New] Russia could use nuclear weapons in response to Western efforts to support Ukraine, causing alarm among observers. Al Jazeera
• [New] By 2026, China's economy will be bigger than America's, and India's will be much larger than that of any individual European country (Russia, Brazil and Indonesia will not be far behind). Centre for European Reform
• [New] India has committed to stopping directly or indirectly importing Russian oil and will purchase energy products from the US. Mint
• [New] Sberbank, Russia's largest lender, plans to roll out crypto-backed loans after testing a program in December using self-mined cryptocurrency as collateral. Crypto Briefing
• [New] Russian oil imports already declining: ~1.2M bpd in January, projected 800K bpd by March. The Rio Times

Last updated: 14 February 2026