Global Scans · Mexico · Weekly Summary

WHAT'S NEXT?: Mexico's economy and status with the U.S. faces uncertain times as a result of Donald Trump's recent election as America's next president. The impacts of Donald Trump's pre-election threats are already being felt by Mexico's economy and may have unforeseen consequences for both nations.

• [New] With the U.S.-Mexico policy rate gap expected to remain relatively stable and the peso's growing role in global carry-trade dynamics, we anticipate the peso ending 2026 with an exchange rate between 18.0 and 18.5 against the U.S. dollar, which would be around its range for the past two months. CCA Financial Planners
• [New] With a projected growth rate of 1.3% in 2026, Mexico's outlook remains closely aligned with developments in the United States and policy outcomes following its recent general elections. RSM Latin America
• [New] The International Monetary Fund (IMF) anticipates modest growth of around 1.5% for the year. / Mexico Mexico Business
• [New] Mexico's GDP growth will reach approximately 1.2% in 2026. Mexico Business
• [New] While a successful extension of the USMCA would support stability, attract investment, and sustain long-term growth, a failure to reach agreements - or the withdrawal of a partner country - could reshape Mexico's economic landscape for years to come. Thomson Reuters Institute
• [New] Without a deal, Mexico could face renewed tariff pressures, impacting its export economy. Roic AI
• [New] U.S. tariffs threaten Mexico's export-dependent economy, particularly in autos where USMCA rules of origin are key, but exemptions and diplomacy have maintained an effective tariff rate of 8.28% compared to China's 39% +, aiding nearshoring momentum. Roic AI
• [New] Colombia, Panama, Mexico and Canada have largely ignored the threat of coercive power. The Conversation
• [New] The United States' invasion of Venezuela and the multiple threats by the Trump administration of military intervention and/or economic sanctions against Greenland, Europe, Canada, Cuba, Mexico, Colombia, Nigeria and others all reflect the ongoing centrality of self-determination today. Belfast Media
• [New] Mexico's economy is expected to have rebounded after a poor Q3. investing.com
• [New] The Mexican government has the opportunity to create intragenerational justice by providing employment opportunities, skills training, and support for local businesses related to extractive activities. University of Edinburgh Research Explorer
• [New] Mexico is accelerating airport investment under President Claudia Sheinbaum, with MX $121.54 billion (US$ 7 billion) allocated to modernize 36 airports and a broader MX $134 billion public-private plan to upgrade 62 airports between 2025 and 2030. Mexico Business
• [New] Correct Mexican tariff classification will become increasingly important, and companies may need to assess alternative sourcing options, including suppliers located in countries with Mexican trade agreements or domestic suppliers. Cacheaux, Cavazos & Newton
• [New] Through Plan Mexico 2025-2030, the federal government intends to transition from assembly-based manufacturing to high-value design and development through 2030. Mexico Business
• [New] Mexico could grow 1.5% in 2026, Vanguard says, helped by U.S. consumers and World Cup tourism, but investment may lag amid T-MEC doubts. Puerto Vallarta News
• [New] The 2026 FIFA World Cup is widely seen as a key opportunity to drive the recovery and growth of Mexico's restaurant industry. MexCham -
• [New] With a population of 130 million, a highly open commercial framework, and its strategic integration into North America, Mexico offers immense potential in natural resources, financial systems, and infrastructure development. Mexico Business
• [New] Canada's leading business voices stress that Mexico has become indispensable to North American competitiveness, but regulatory challenges in energy, critical minerals, and agriculture could complicate the ongoing USMCA review. Mexico Business
• [New] Canada and Mexico have appropriately pointed out that they cannot simultaneously pose a threat to and be a guarantee of U.S. national security, but we may need to pursue 232 relief on a separate path to preserve USMCA. Americas Quarterly
• [New] There are growing fears that Mexico may retaliate by targeting U.S. agricultural exports or slowing cooperation on energy transit. The Chronicle-Journal
• [New] Looking beyond 2026, Mexico's competitive position will hinge on its ability to navigate the USMCA review, secure predictable tariff regimes, and attract investment in advanced automotive segments. Mexico Business

Last updated: 03 February 2026