Global Scans · Mexico · Weekly Summary

WHAT'S NEXT?: Mexico's economy and status with the U.S. faces uncertain times as a result of Donald Trump's recent election as America's next president. The impacts of Donald Trump's pre-election threats are already being felt by Mexico's economy and may have unforeseen consequences for both nations.

• [New] As of January, Mexican avocados will need to meet a deforestation-free criteria in order to be exported. The Guardian
• [New] Uncertainties around US trade policy - including the impending expiration of the trade truce with China and the future of trade agreements with Canada and Mexico, which are set for review in 2026 - exacerbate risks to the economic outlook. African Business
• [New] High AI adoption and optimism among students and teachers suggest readiness for change, but OECD and Google data also warn of a potential concentration of benefits among already advantaged groups. / Mexico Mexico Business
• [New] Mexico's experience underscores both opportunity and risk. Mexico Business
• [New] Volatility in the wider trade environment - particularly between the US and its neighbours Canada and Mexico, which both play host to Stellantis production - could force sticker prices up. Automotive World
• [New] The Bank of Mexico said it now expects inflation to reach its 3% target in the second quarter of 2027, instead of the third quarter of 2026. Morningstar, Inc.
• [New] Almost perfectly timed, we are now just a couple of weeks away from the Super Bowl, an event for which Mexico is expected to export a record-breaking volume of avocados to the United States: more than 280 million pounds (around 127,000 tonnes). Mexico News Daily
• [New] The probability of cuts remains high as the output gap will likely stay negative throughout 2026, though timing remains uncertain due to several inflationary factors including higher taxes, higher tariffs, and World Cup-related effects. / Mexico investing.com
• [New] The research firm projects Mexico's year-end 2026 policy rate will reach 6.0%, with rate cuts likely occurring at alternating meetings beginning after February. investing.com
• [New] On monetary policy, Bank of America maintains its expectation that Banxico, Mexico's central bank, will implement rate cuts totaling 100 basis points in 2026. investing.com
• [New] Investing.com - Bank of America has revised its 2026 GDP growth forecast for Mexico upward to 1.5% from 1.2%, citing a stronger-than-expected conclusion to 2025 and potential economic benefits from the FIFA World Cup. investing.com
• [New] Mexico will introduce import quota to non-FTA suppliers and launch anti-dumping and anti-subsidy investigations into US pork, while China imposes anti-dumping duties on EU pork imports. Feed & Additive Magazine
• [New] Mexico's economy is projected to grow 1.5% in 2026 and 2.1% in 2027, following a modest 0.6% expansion last year. MercoPress
• [New] The strong focus on gas raises doubt about Mexico more than doubling - to 45% - its electricity from renewables by 2030, as promised by Sheinbaum. ABC News
• [New] Pablo Ramirez, of Greenpeace, said completing all the pipeline projects would make it unlikely Mexico could meet its goal of reducing net carbon dioxide emissions by 31% to 37% by 2035. ABC News
• [New] More than 60% of Mexico's electricity comes from gas-fired power plants, and about 70% of that gas comes from the U.S. Fitch Ratings said last year that Mexico's reliance on U.S.-piped gas will continue to grow because of rising demand, insufficient domestic production and the buildout of pipelines. ABC News
• [New] Another item of concern is the potential for a re-opening of the U.S. to imports of cattle from Mexico. Pro Farmer
• [New] The coming months will test Mexico's ability to navigate complex negotiations while safeguarding economic stability. The Yucatan Times
• [New] Air Canada is expanding its winter 2026-27 network with new direct flights to Quito, year-round routes to Manchester and Copenhagen, and revived Mexico services from Calgary to meet growing demand for international travel and strengthen its presence in key global markets. Travel And Tour World
• [New] Mexico has sought to do more to combat its cartels in an effort to stave off airstrikes threatened by President Trump. The New York Times
• [New] Mexico's central bank has said it will slow its current easing cycle in 2026 as it awaits the full effects of tax reforms and new trade policies. Central Banking
• [New] The 2026 FIFA World Cup is expected to become a major growth driver for Mexico's restaurant industry, with sector leaders projecting sales increases fueled by tourism, special menus, delivery strategies and workforce training. Mexico Business
• [New] With the U.S.-Mexico policy rate gap expected to remain relatively stable and the peso's growing role in global carry-trade dynamics, we anticipate the peso ending 2026 with an exchange rate between 18.0 and 18.5 against the U.S. dollar, which would be around its range for the past two months. CCA Financial Planners

Last updated: 10 February 2026