Global Scans · Trade · Weekly Summary

WHAT'S NEXT?: Global trade policies could be upended with a new President in the White House, Brexit, a potential break-up of the European Union and China reacting to these changes in profound ways.

• [New] A growing economy will drive similar mid-single-digit revenue growth as in 2025, while margins are expected to inch higher as tariffs are fully absorbed and benefits from AI increasingly permeate, enabling the potential for double-digit earnings growth. Tortuga Wealth Management
• [New] Potential AI disappointments, possible upward pressure on long-term interest rates, renewed global trade tensions, and geopolitical instability will remain key risks for stock investors to monitor. Tortuga Wealth Management
• [New] US production output currently remains positive despite global trade wars, with predicted growth of between 2% and 3% for 2025. Automation.com
• [New] Annual average CPI inflation is projected to fall slightly in 2025 to 3.5% but is expected to edge up in 2026 due to negotiated increases in electricity tariffs. Mirage News
• [New] Services should remain the main driver of growth in Q4 and into 2026, while factory output is likely to stay weak amid tariff-related headwinds, growing competitiveness from other countries like China, and structural challenges. The Conference Board
• [New] 2025 saw a record year for final investment decisions for U.S. LNG projects, potentially locking in a massive wave of new gas export capacity that will come online later this decade. Gas Outlook
• [New] With capital confidence restored and export capacity expanding, North American LNG has evolved from a policy talking point into the core engine of energy growth heading into 2026. PwC
• [New] Buyers are adapting to shifting U.S. trade and industrial policy by using M&A to strengthen domestic capacity and reduce supply chain risk. PwC
• [New] In 2025 and 2026, tariffs and high global uncertainty are expected to continue weighing on investment and exports. Economy and Finance
• [New] Companies must strategically diversify supply chains and navigate emerging trade corridors, such as the China-ASEAN corridor, while managing operational and regulatory risks in an increasingly complex geopolitical environment. Oliver Wyman Forum
• [New] In 2025, China's goods trade is expected to remain robust with stable growth despite external pressures. IDNFinancials
• [New] On openness and trade policy, China will continue orderly and institutionalised opening, expand openness in the services sector, optimise free trade zones, and promote service exports alongside the development of digital and green trade. IDNFinancials
• [New] The new tariff regime will reduce global GDP by roughly 0.7% by 2026 and real US GDP by 1.2% by 2026, excluding any offsets. EY
• [New] U.S. export controls and China's retaliatory measures are reshaping supply chains, creating both risks and opportunities. Ainvest
• [New] Policy risks (U.S. export controls, China retaliations) and macroeconomic shifts could reshape sectoral trajectories, urging investors to balance AI growth potential with traditional sector undervaluation opportunities. Ainvest
• [New] Rivalry between major powers leads to the decoupling of global trade in friendshoring and nearshoring, but also to disruption of transhipment in ports, punitive tariffs and sanctions. SWZ|Maritime | For technical professionals in the marit
• [New] US President Donald Trump has permitted Nvidia to export its advanced H200 semiconductors to the PRC, which will enable the PRC to significantly reduce the artificial intelligence gap with the United States and possibly enhance its military effectiveness. American Enterprise Institute - AEI
• [New] UNCTAD expects trade growth to weaken as slower global economic activity, high debt levels, elevated trade costs, and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty take hold. Global Training Center
• [New] External Risks: Exports vulnerable to global protectionism, tariffs, and geopolitical tensions; services and remittances cannot fully offset weak goods exports. Ekam IAS Academy
• [New] The U.S. LNG export capacity is projected for significant growth, reaching 28-33 Bcf per day by 2030. FinancialContent
• [New] The ability of India's negotiators to finally close the trade deals with the US and the EU will be key investment accelerators, even as the shadow of conflict remains. FTI Strategic Communications
• [New] China's new licensing requirements for rare earths and other materials could suddenly hit the European economy - along with multiple other obstacles from trade turbulence, to rules of origin, to tariffs. InterEconomics
• [New] Trade and economic impacts of tariffs could become more visible and significant in 2026. FASH455 Global Apparel & Textile Trade and Sourcing

Last updated: 18 December 2025