Global Scans · Economy · Weekly Summary

DRIVER: The global economy still faces serious headwinds and political uncertainty potentially balanced by the enormous promise of technological advancements in many fields. Read on to get a solid handle on the opportunities and risks you and your organization may likely face and set your sails accordingly.

• [New] Although US inflation is expected to remain above target, Federal Reserve (Fed) rates are expected to be cut by up to 1% by the end of 2026, while the European Central Bank has scope for another cut in interest rates. Global English
• [New] CATL is expected to begin production in 2026 at its second European site; the factory, located in Hungary, is an $8.2 billion project that will supply automakers including BMW and the Mercedes-Benz group. MIT Technology Review
• [New] The Australian Government will prioritise fostering innovation and economic growth in the AI sector in balance with ensuring safety from AI related harms. Johnson Winter Slattery
• [New] Globally, construction output is expected to grow 3.3% in 2026, helped by easing financial conditions and gradual residential recovery, though civil engineering and non-residential growth may moderate under fiscal pressure. alcircle
• [New] Telehealth now represents a quarter-trillion-dollar segment of the US health care economy, with sustained growth projected through the remainder of the decade. Pharmacy Times
• [New] Industry analysts point to a generative AI-driven iPhone refresh cycle expected in late 2026, which could accelerate unit sales and boost average selling prices for premium models. Grand Pinnacle Tribune
• [New] Expanding apprenticeships in California is essential for creating equitable economic opportunities and addressing workforce shortages. NextGen Policy
• [New] Global foundry capacity used to produce similar or more advanced commodities for end-users in the United States will not be diverted to produce products authorized by the license for export to China. Pillsbury Law
• [New] Without immediate action, by 2050, AMR could cause the world economy to lose more than $6 trillion in GDP, or approximately 4% of GDP. PubMed Central (PMC)
• [New] India is constantly forecasted to expand by about 6.6-6.7% in 2026, placing it among the fastest-growing major economies within Asia, powered by strong domestic demand, consumption, and government investment. gsdn.live
• [New] The ability of countries in East Asia to effectively navigate relationships between Washington and Beijing, underpinned by economic connections, will shape regional diplomacy despite continued military competitions in technology in 2026. gsdn.live
• [New] Central Asian states will continue hedge-balancing their geography to attract infrastructure investment, diversify their economic partners, and avoid overdependence on any one power. gsdn.live
• [New] By integrating real-time data and artificial intelligence, FUSION will enable traffic signals to adapt dynamically, potentially cutting delays by up to 14% and delivering £1 billion in economic benefits through faster journey times. UKAuthority
• [New] Some money managers expect the Fed to cut rates one or two times in 2026, assuming inflation continues its downward trend and consumer spending remains resilient. investing.com
• [New] Mainstream Expectation: Most economists expect the US economy to grow above trend in 2026. investing.com
• [New] The global space economy is projected to surpass $1 trillion by 2034, driven largely by advancements in satellite technology. Aerospace & Defense News
• [New] Current forecasts project North American vehicle production volumes will return to mid-2019 levels by 2030, driven by capacity expansions and reallocation toward BEV, HEV, and advanced ICE vehicles. PwC
• [New] The U.S. economy has shown remarkable resilience in the face of policy uncertainty and AI's potential disruption. Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research (SIEPR)
• [New] The Bank of England is forecast to hold rates at 3.75% following December's hawkish reduction, as policymakers assess delayed impacts of previous cuts on inflation and economic growth. The Investment Trading Hub
• [New] With aluminum prices at a multi year high and Alcoa reporting higher quarterly aluminum output of 604 kmt versus 571 kmt a year earlier, you have a clearer link between stronger pricing and a larger production base that could matter for earnings quality and cash generation. Yahoo Finance
• [New] Warming is likely to exceed 2 °C by 2050, triggering severe and systemic impacts on economies and societies worldwide. Innovation Zero 2025

Last updated: 03 February 2026