[New] The median Superforecaster is more optimistic about improvements in AI-based forecasting systems: Superforecasters expect to be overtaken by the end of 2028.
Longitudinal Expert AI Panel
[New] Both median experts and superforecasters expect the performance gap between the top U.S. and top Chinese AI systems to narrow substantially by 2040, while predicting that U.S. systems will maintain a modest advantage at least until the end of 2030.
Longitudinal Expert AI Panel
[New] The U.S. and/or EU would impose $1 billion in cumulative large-scale regulatory fines on AI companies by 2027, rising to $4 billion by 2030, and $10 billion by 2040.
Longitudinal Expert AI Panel
[New] Superforecasters themselves are the most bullish group with the median superforecaster predicting AI systems will beat their ForecastBench benchmark by 2028, which is earlier than the median expert (2030) or the median public (2033) forecast.
Longitudinal Expert AI Panel
[New] Chinese AI systems will roughly match American ones on benchmarks by the end of 2040.
Longitudinal Expert AI Panel
[New] The benefits that AI brings to smart building platforms will enable global spend to exceed $42 billion by 2028.
Juniper Research Ltd
[New] In 2026, cleaning and organizing business data will become critical priorities for successful AI adoption, along with integrating AI across core systems including ERP and Warehouse Management Systems.
UniUni
[New] State-level initiatives in the United States, such as California's AI transparency law and Texas's Responsible AI Governance Act, reflect a growing recognition of the need for tailored AI regulations that address specific risks while fostering innovation.
JD Supra
[New] AI and data security, the Thales 2026 report: for 70% of companies, it is the primary internal threat.
FIRSTonline
[New] By the end of 2026, AI technology will begin to make significant impacts on M&A transactions, enhancing due diligence processes and streamlining deal timelines.
JD Supra
[New] Global software spending is projected to grow 14.7% to $1.43 trillion in 2026, with AI-related spending expected to triple over the 2025-2026 period.
The Chronicle-Journal
[New] 86% of employers view AI as the dominant driver of business transformation through 2030.
IIoT World
[New] The superstar firms of 2035 will leverage AI, just as other general-purpose technologies such as steam or electricity were harnessed by the superstars of their day.
Houses of Parliament, Westminster
[New] Almost three-quarters of CEOs are now their organization's main decision-maker on AI strategy, and companies expect to double AI spending in 2026, up from an average of 0.8% of revenue to about 1.7%.
https://www.usaii.org/ai-insights/ai-leadership-trends-
[New] A program designed to accelerate diffusion could become an additional procedural layer that slows deal cycles, politicizes routine commercial activity, and signals that approved or at least favored AI deployment requires a U.S. government channel even in markets that are already moving.
Default
[New] By technology, artificial intelligence / machine learning is projected to grow at a remarkable CAGR of 17.5% between 2025 and 2034.
Precedence Research
[New] As discussed in a recent blog (Hyperscaler Capex Continues to Grow), capital expenditures have only accelerated since the DeepSeek news, with Google-parent Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, and Oracle expected to spend $600 billion on AI-related development in 2026.
Cimarron Wealth Management, Inc
[New] AI is expected to support tasks such as content creation, translation, and accessibility services, including real-time transcription for listeners who are deaf or hearing-impaired.
TrovNews
[New] In 2026, AI will be embedded in R&D, diagnostics, and care delivery, moving from pilot projects to core infrastructure.
Talencio
Last updated: 01 March 2026
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