Global Scans · Recession · Weekly Summary

• [New] Oil prices spiked from $75 to over $130 per barrel within 48 hours, triggering fears of global economic recession. OpenWar
• [New] The WEF regional risk survey identifies economic recession, unemployment, and inflation as the top three risk concerns across ASEAN. KBA13 INSIGHT
• [New] Fears of a recession have fallen away, with economists saying Australia is set to safely navigate the biggest global oil supply shock in history even as they warn of substandard growth in the year ahead. The Guardian
• [New] The absence of a recession, solid profit growth, Trump likely to pivot to more consumer-friendly policies ahead of the mid-terms and the Fed and RBA likely to cut rates 2027 should result in okay overall returns. Propel Financial Advice
• [New] In a global recession risk scenario, GBP is likely to face external pressure from a stronger dollar, tighter financial conditions, and a less forgiving view of UK financing needs. investing.com
• [New] UK house price growth stalled for a second consecutive month in June as rising interest rates triggered by the war in Iran hurt homebuyer demand and agents warned of a summer slump. The Guardian
• [New] The # 1 question for the Asian construction sectors is how long will the Iran conflict last, will it cause inflation to spike in the next 3 to 6 months or perhaps a global recession. Compass International, Inc.
• [New] Higher interest rates, persistent inflation, or a global recession could push investors toward safer assets and reduce demand for cryptocurrencies. StealthEX
• [New] The global economy is not yet in a broad recession, but expensive capital, geopolitical energy risk, weak household demand and narrow AI leadership continue to make markets unusually fragile. CLAREMONT
• If the current energy shock persists, Germany and Italy could slip into technical recession by Q4 2026. LongYield
• Evidence points to escalating tensions increasing the chances of a US recession in 2026, as geopolitical risks overshadow domestic data. Ainvest
• Goldman Sachs, Moody's Analytics and others in recent days have raised their odds of recession in the next 12 months, with a focus on threats from a slowing jobs picture and surging energy costs. CNBC
• The Oil price shock due to the Iran war will take a toll on the German economy but is unlikely to trigger a recession. Global Banking & Finance Review
• Bloomberg economic surveys showed a raised U.S. GDP forecast for 2027 to 2.1%, a reduced probability of recession in China alongside lower GDP growth expectations, and expectations of a June rate hike in Western Europe. WatchGold
• 2026 marks the beginning of the Panic Cycle, 2027 carries the highest risk of broader international war, and the economic consequences will intensify into 2028 as recession and civil unrest spread. / Ukraine Armstrong Economics
• Higher interest rates have curbed economic growth, and many believe a recession state-side is likely - and that, at best, Canada will remain in a slow - to no-growth mode, if not in a recession itself. SenCanada

Last updated: 05 August 2026