Global Scans · Recession · Weekly Summary

• [New] Evidence points to escalating tensions increasing the chances of a US recession in 2026, as geopolitical risks overshadow domestic data. Ainvest
• [New] Goldman Sachs, Moody's Analytics and others in recent days have raised their odds of recession in the next 12 months, with a focus on threats from a slowing jobs picture and surging energy costs. CNBC
• [New] The Oil price shock due to the Iran war will take a toll on the German economy but is unlikely to trigger a recession. Global Banking & Finance Review
• [New] Bloomberg economic surveys showed a raised U.S. GDP forecast for 2027 to 2.1%, a reduced probability of recession in China alongside lower GDP growth expectations, and expectations of a June rate hike in Western Europe. WatchGold
• [New] 2026 marks the beginning of the Panic Cycle, 2027 carries the highest risk of broader international war, and the economic consequences will intensify into 2028 as recession and civil unrest spread. / Ukraine Armstrong Economics
• Higher interest rates have curbed economic growth, and many believe a recession state-side is likely - and that, at best, Canada will remain in a slow - to no-growth mode, if not in a recession itself. SenCanada
• The rebound in Mexico's industry eases recession fears, but manufacturing activity is far from a boom. Pantheon Macroeconomics
• A conflict involving Taiwan, a major cyberwar between nation-states, disruptions to critical shipping routes, or sanctions-related financial fragmentation could generate second-order effects that are difficult to capture through traditional recession assumptions. Forbes
• Goldman Sachs Asset Management argues recent corporate credit spread widening is more noise than signal, suggesting markets may be overpricing recession risk. The Idea Farm
• The slump in services has increased the risk that Germany's economy could contract in Q2. Stock Market Update
• Even a slightly rosier outlook could mean that rather than face a recession, the global economy will face a period of weaker than previously expected growth in the third quarter, before global GDP growth recovers to its pre-conflict pace of just over 3% in late 2026 and into 2027. The Guardian
• The ongoing Iran war is projected to slow global economic growth to its weakest pace since the Covid-19 pandemic and renewed hostilities could cause it to slump further. CNN
• There is a global commodity price shock with no clear resolution timeline that increases recession risk. BTRM

Last updated: 15 July 2026