Global Scans · Recession · Weekly Summary

• [New] Even a slightly rosier outlook could mean that rather than face a recession, the global economy will face a period of weaker than previously expected growth in the third quarter, before global GDP growth recovers to its pre-conflict pace of just over 3% in late 2026 and into 2027. The Guardian
• [New] The ongoing Iran war is projected to slow global economic growth to its weakest pace since the Covid-19 pandemic and renewed hostilities could cause it to slump further. CNN
• [New] There is a global commodity price shock with no clear resolution timeline that increases recession risk. BTRM
• [New] The ECB's decision must balance the need to address rising inflation with the risk of sparking a recession, as economic expansion is already sagging. Saxo Bank A/S (Headquarters)
• [New] Under the OECD's prolonged disruption scenario, global growth slows from 3.4% last year to 2.1% in 2026 and 1.8% in 2027, potentially pushing some economies into or close to recession. WSB-TV Channel 2 - Atlanta
• [New] Consumer, business and investor confidence could collapse, which could lead to markedly stronger inflation and subdued economic growth, if not a global recession. Desjardins.com
• The UK will fall into recession towards the end of the year as energy costs soar. The Council of Industry
• Global growth is likely to slow modestly to 3.2% for the full year, hurt by the energy shock but avoiding recession, and then recover to 3.4% in 2027 as oil and gas prices ease. Morgan Stanley
• Coupled with the chance of a prolonged conflict with Iran, and it could spell recession. CUSO Magazine
• Britain's economy could be dragged into recession by the end of 2026 by high energy prices and interest rate hikes. The Guardian
• Surging interest rates and petrol prices have stripped more than $1bn a month from Australian household budgets as economists warn of recession risks. The Guardian
• S&P 500 reached fresh all-time highs on stronger-than-expected earnings growth and mega-cap technology companies generating billions in free cash flow, yet recession fears persist for 2027. Yahoo Finance
• A recession is not currently expected, but risks are increasing and remain closely tied to the stability of oil and gas supplies, including flows through the Strait of Hormuz. Caliber.az
• A quantum computer cyberattack on the Federal Reserve's Fedwire Funds Service - its interbank payment system - could trigger a financial collapse and result in a six-month economic recession. CNN
• If inflation were to re-accelerate, perhaps due to surging oil prices or unexpected supply shocks, the Fed might be forced to maintain its restrictive stance, or even hike again, which would significantly tighten financial conditions and increase recession risk. Kavout
• Deep domestic political polarization, fears of economic recession, inflationary pressures, weak public support for another distant war, and the possibility of insufficient allied cooperation could prevent the United States from effectively defending Taiwan at a critical moment. E-International Relations
• Rainy day funds are thinning just as federal policy changes and diminished federal revenue sharing are driving up states' administrative costs, and as the U.S. contends with an elevated risk of recession. Vertex, Inc.
• Europe could tip into recession if the Iran war and Hormuz closure persist. The Rio Times

Last updated: 24 June 2026