Global Scans · Recession · Weekly Summary

• [New] There's a material risk that Canada's housing slump could persist for longer and lead to a deeper correction in prices. BNN Bloomberg
• [New] The military conflict in the Middle East, heightened risk of a global recession, renewed inflationary pressures and rising interest rates domestically have created a highly challenging operating environment. Australian Financial Review
• [New] Industrial silver demand softens in a recession, and recession risk is rising - Goldman Sachs, EY-Parthenon, and Moody's Analytics now put US recession probability between 30% and 49%. FXStreet
• [New] The UK is stuck in a stagflation scenario and risks of a recession are rising fast. The Guardian
• [New] The global economy is at risk of recession if the Iran conflict persists. BeverageDaily.com
• [New] The International Monetary Fund has warned the US-Israel war on Iran risks creating an energy crisis of an unprecedented scale that could tip the global economy towards recession. The Guardian
• [New] Analysts at Goldman Sachs bumped up the probability of a U.S. recession in the coming 12 months to 30%, stressing that they, too, still expect two rate cuts because they see unemployment moving higher than the Fed's own projections. Guardian Capital
• [New] A US recession in 2026 is not guaranteed, but the risk is clearly rising based on current economic signals like high oil prices and policy uncertainty. Economic Times
• If the Middle East crisis is resolved by the end of April, the global economy will most likely skirt recession. MMA Group at LPL Financial
• Economists have warned that, should oil prices top $150 per barrel, the UK economy would plunge into a recession. City AM
• Gulf economies could slip into recession in 2026, shrinking by 2% to 5%, with Qatar and Kuwait being the most vulnerable due to their dependence on the Strait of Hormuz. Global Finance Magazine
• The blockage of the Strait of Hormuz has left the world facing another energy crisis and warning bells of a global recession are growing increasingly shrill. Top1000Funds.com
• The OECD's core conclusion for the UK is captured in its March report: growth of 0.5% in 2026, inflation of 4%, and a warning that energy-intensive economies face high risks of technical recession if the maritime blockade persists through the summer refill season. US Recession News
• Several key U.S. economic indicators continue to show more resilience than would typically be expected ahead of an imminent recession. Prudent Investors
• At one point in the fall, a Bloomberg model projected a 100% risk of a US recession over the next 12 months. CNN
• The US economy is under strain, and the oil price shock could tip it over into recession. CNN
• US recession warning 2026: Fears of a US recession are escalating as Moody's Analytics forecasts a 49% chance of a downturn within a year, a figure potentially rising above 50% due to the Iran war's impact on oil prices. Economic Times
• If the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, we could see oil prices test the $150 mark, potentially pushing the U.S. into a stagflationary recession - where inflation remains high while growth finally stalls. FinancialContent
• The pessimistic scenario involves a demand shock, where the combination of high prices and sustained high interest rates eventually breaks the back of the US consumer, leading to a contraction in new orders and a potential manufacturing recession by 2027. FinancialContent

Last updated: 22 April 2026