Global Scans · Recession · Weekly Summary

• [New] Higher interest rates have curbed economic growth, and many believe a recession state-side is likely - and that, at best, Canada will remain in a slow - to no-growth mode, if not in a recession itself. SenCanada
• [New] The rebound in Mexico's industry eases recession fears, but manufacturing activity is far from a boom. Pantheon Macroeconomics
• [New] A conflict involving Taiwan, a major cyberwar between nation-states, disruptions to critical shipping routes, or sanctions-related financial fragmentation could generate second-order effects that are difficult to capture through traditional recession assumptions. Forbes
• [New] Goldman Sachs Asset Management argues recent corporate credit spread widening is more noise than signal, suggesting markets may be overpricing recession risk. The Idea Farm
• [New] The slump in services has increased the risk that Germany's economy could contract in Q2. Stock Market Update
• [New] Even a slightly rosier outlook could mean that rather than face a recession, the global economy will face a period of weaker than previously expected growth in the third quarter, before global GDP growth recovers to its pre-conflict pace of just over 3% in late 2026 and into 2027. The Guardian
• [New] The ongoing Iran war is projected to slow global economic growth to its weakest pace since the Covid-19 pandemic and renewed hostilities could cause it to slump further. CNN
• [New] There is a global commodity price shock with no clear resolution timeline that increases recession risk. BTRM
• [New] The ECB's decision must balance the need to address rising inflation with the risk of sparking a recession, as economic expansion is already sagging. Saxo Bank A/S (Headquarters)
• [New] Under the OECD's prolonged disruption scenario, global growth slows from 3.4% last year to 2.1% in 2026 and 1.8% in 2027, potentially pushing some economies into or close to recession. WSB-TV Channel 2 - Atlanta
• [New] Consumer, business and investor confidence could collapse, which could lead to markedly stronger inflation and subdued economic growth, if not a global recession. Desjardins.com
• The UK will fall into recession towards the end of the year as energy costs soar. The Council of Industry
• Global growth is likely to slow modestly to 3.2% for the full year, hurt by the energy shock but avoiding recession, and then recover to 3.4% in 2027 as oil and gas prices ease. Morgan Stanley
• Coupled with the chance of a prolonged conflict with Iran, and it could spell recession. CUSO Magazine

Last updated: 01 July 2026